Altcoin Season Index Indicates SOL and XRP May Outperform Bitcoin

As the Altcoin Season Index approaches 40% and the total market capitalization of altcoins hits $1.3 trillion, blue-chip altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP are poised to potentially outpace Bitcoin, irrespective of Bitcoin’s price movements.

Key Takeaways

The Altcoin Season Index is nearing 40%, suggesting potential market growth for altcoins.
Analysis by Joao Wedson indicates that altcoins are stabilizing, possibly leading to a rally while Bitcoin may face additional downturns.
Solana has seen an 8% rise, and XRP has surged nearly 14%, reclaiming significant price levels.
XRP is showing early signs of a stabilization phase after a lengthy downturn, with a projected upward trajectory towards a $5-$10 price range.
Solana continues to lead in transaction volume and has demonstrated significant inflows into its investment products.

Altcoin Season Index Signals SOL and XRP Ready to Outpace Bitcoin

Altcoin Market Trends 2025

Joao Wedson, CEO of the investment analytics platform Alphractal, conducted a recent analysis predicting an upcoming altcoin rally. He notes that various altcoins are already stabilizing while Bitcoin retains room for further decline.

“We are observing a setup similar to what was seen in 2019 or 2022, with many altcoins not reaching new lows while the top cryptocurrencies by market cap experienced substantial downturns,” Wedson explained.

In addition, he pointed out that whales are increasingly shorting Bitcoin, despite its recent breakout from the $90,000 range in December, while simultaneously taking long positions in altcoins.

Altcoin Season Index - Whale vs Retail Delta Heatmap

“This explains why some altcoins are rising while the general public is unaware of the underlying dynamics,” he added.

Recent Performances of XRP and SOL

In the past week, Solana has soared over 8%, breaking its downtrend, while XRP surged approximately 14%, reclaiming the $2.00 level and surpassing BNB to become the fourth most valuable cryptocurrency by market cap.

Analysts note that XRP is stabilizing after a long decline, showing initial signs of establishing a base. Historically, XRP has completed two significant impulse cycles: one from 2014-2015 and another from 2017-2018, both culminating after about 49-50 monthly candles accompanied by marked volume increases.

Since the peak in 2018, XRP's price action has been confined within a descending triangle, characterized by a series of declining resistance levels and upward-moving support.

Altcoin Season Index - XRP Price Prediction Chart

This phase of compression seems to be resolving positively as we approach 2024-2025, with XRP maintaining its position above its long-term average and consolidating instead of collapsing. This behavior signals a transition from wave (III) to wave (IV), rather than indicating a broader market top.

The projected growth trajectory puts XRP on course for a wave V price target in the $5-$10 range, aligning with previous cycle extensions once it breaks free from long-term compression. Provided XRP remains above its long-term support and does not dip back into pre-2024 ranges, the outlook remains bullish, with expectations of an explosive price movement.

Solana's Dominance in Transactions

Nansen AI reports that Solana significantly outpaced BNB Chain in transaction volume in 2025, with approximately six times the activity. This is echoed in Solana's investment products, which attracted $3.56 billion in inflows throughout 2025—a surge of over 1,000% from the $310 million recorded in 2024.

Analysts are closely monitoring SOL as it breaks free from its October downtrend, making the possibility of surpassing the $200 level increasingly likely.

The daily SOL/USDT chart reveals a notable transition from a robust bullish structure to a corrective and distribution phase. Earlier in the year, Solana consistently respected bullish breaks as its price rose from the lower demand zone between $100-$120 to the $240-$260 area.

However, the inability to maintain prices within the rejection range around $260-$290 signaled a critical inflection point, confirming pronounced selling pressure at these elevated levels and initiating a broader downtrend.

Altcoin Season Index - SOL Price Prediction Chart

Since that peak, the market structure has turned bearish, with consistent breaks and lower highs forming below supply zones at $200, $180, and $160.

Currently, the key aspect to consider is the response of price to demand, though a confirmed bullish break of the current structure is still pending. If SOL can manage to break above the supply zone around $145-$160, it would indicate a reduction in downwards momentum, potentially paving the way for recovery towards $180 and $200.