Are Altcoins Set to Make a Comeback? Understanding Bitcoin's Continued Dominance in 2026

Are altcoins coming back? Why 'Bitcoin season' has staying power in 2026

Summary: The market for altcoins is currently facing a decline, pointing towards a prolonged period of Bitcoin dominance. Analysts suggest that indicators are not favoring a shift towards altcoin season anytime soon.

Key Takeaways:

The Supertrend indicator has issued a “sell” signal, which historically led to significant declines in the total market cap of altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance is increasing, and the altcoin season index shows no signs of improvement.

Bearish Trends in the Altcoin Market

The recent downturn in altcoins is illustrated by the drop in the TOTAL2 index, which represents the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin. This decline began on October 10 and is evident in the data from TradingView that shows a 32% decrease in TOTAL2, falling from an all-time high of $1.77 trillion to $1.19 trillion in December.

This decrease has caused TOTAL2 to break through crucial support levels, such as the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $1.3 trillion, as depicted in the graph below.

Related:__Crypto altseason seems unlikely in 2026 as stable altcoins are predicted to prevail: Analyst

The Supertrend indicator also switched from a bullish green to a bearish red mid-November, signaling a downtrend for TOTAL2. This indicator helps traders anticipate market movements by tracking price trends against the average true range.

Historical data shows that similar signals from these indicators were followed by drawdowns of 85.5% and 66% during previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022, as illustrated below.

_Total crypto market cap excluding BTC. Source:_TradingView

Altcoins are struggling in the current downtrend, with TOTAL2 consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern. Analyst Merlijn The Trader noted on X that while support at $1.15 trillion holds for now, a break from this triangle could lead to a significant drop of up to -30%, forecasting a potential market cap of $830 billion. He emphasized that an altcoin season will remain elusive until resistance at $1.68 trillion is surpassed.

_TOTAL2 weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/_TradingView

CryptoDaddi expressed a similar sentiment on X, suggesting that traditional altcoin seasons are unlikely to return, indicating that investment is becoming concentrated in a few select altcoins.

Bitcoin's Unyielding Market Hold

Bitcoin’s stronghold on the cryptocurrency market has intensified throughout 2025, creating challenges for altcoins aiming for higher performance. After reaching a dominance level of over 65% in June, it fell to 57% in September before rallying to higher highs and lows, as shown in the following chart.

Currently, Bitcoin dominance sits at 59.27%, suggesting it remains a “Bitcoin season.”

_Bitcoin dominance, %. Source: Cointelegraph/_TradingView

This dominance metric has not dipped below 50% since September 2023, a threshold typically signaling the start of altseason. The shifts in market dynamics are largely attributed to growing institutional adoption after the introduction and success of Bitcoin ETFs, which have drawn billions in investments from traditional finance.

Prominent institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity show a preference for Bitcoin due to its relative stability, regulatory clarity, and a perception of altcoins as riskier investments. BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF alone attracted over $25 billion in inflows in 2025, illustrating a strong institutional preference for Bitcoin over altcoins.

CyrilXBT remarked on X that the trend indicates more capital is flowing back into Bitcoin rather than altcoins.

The Outlook for Altcoin Season

While some indicators typically used to forecast an altcoin season are pointing low, they suggest that one is not imminent. The Altcoin Speculation Index from Capriole Investments shows that only 21% of leading altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last three months, indicating that many altcoin holders might be selling out of frustration.

Moreover, the Crypto Market Breadth, which gauges market strength, reveals that merely 8% of altcoins are currently trading above their 50-day moving average, further underscoring the weakness in the altcoin market.

Altcoin speculation index. Source: Capriole Investments

The CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which compares the top 100 cryptocurrencies' performance against Bitcoin over a three-month span, stands at a mere 18 out of 100. This indicates a market heavily dominated by Bitcoin, with altcoin season usually marked by scores above 75%. Altcoin trader Money Ape discussed this concerning trend on X, noting that the index has reached unprecedented lows.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed significant segments of the cryptocurrency market in recent months, reinforcing the trend of capital and investment favoring Bitcoin over altcoins.