Can ASTER Experience a 30% Surge in December? Insights from Recent Data

Summary: The future of Aster DEX's price movement is a topic of interest, as recent analysis suggests a potential rally in December. Despite some bullish community sentiment, various factors combined with recent trading data indicate obstacles ahead, including sell pressure from upcoming token unlocks.

Key Takeaways

Aster DEX has remained stable at around $1, despite a challenging market.
A predicted price increase to $1.50 could represent a 30% rise if certain conditions are met.
Trading volumes are up, surpassing competitors, yet overall chain activity remains low.
Upcoming token unlocks may present sell pressures that could hinder price gains.

Can ASTER experience a 30% surge in December? Insights from recent data

Potential for a 30% Price Rally in December

Currently, Aster (ASTER) is holding steady at approximately $1 after recently correcting from a rally that pushed the price to $1.40. Over the past week, the 4-hour chart has shown sideways movement, indicating ongoing accumulation of the altcoin. Notably, the On Balance Volume (OBV) mirrors earlier patterns noted in early November, suggesting that ASTER may be eyeing a climb to the $1.50 mark.

However, for this bullish scenario to unfold, the price must break above a downward trendline, similar to how it previously escaped sideways trading conditions.

ASTER

Source: TradingView

Positive signs of buying activity are emerging, as indicated by a slightly green MACD. Currently, the signal lines are beneath the zero line, and the histogram bars remain small, highlighting that buyers are just starting to establish control.

While the possibility of a gain exceeding 30% exists, diminishing on-chain activity, along with potential sell pressure from unlocked tokens, could pose significant challenges.

Activity Level Assessment: ASTER vs. Hyperliquid

Aster has shown a 10% increase in daily trading volume, outperforming its competitor Hyperliquid (HYPE). ASTER's volume stood at $5.467 billion compared to HYPE's $4.605 billion, illustrating its competitive strength post-launch.

Source: X

Nonetheless, other metrics indicate a decline in performance across the chain, with decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual volume falling below benchmarks set from September to early November. Additionally, transaction fees have drastically reduced to about $1.18 million for the day, while Total Value Locked (TVL) has diminished nearly 50%, decreasing from $2.48 billion to $1.32 billion.

Source: DefiLlama

These elements paint a bearish outlook, and a market shift could abruptly change the trajectory of a potential 30% rally.

Forecasting Sell Pressure Ahead

In December, Aster and Sui Network (SUI) are anticipated to face significant sell pressure due to major token unlocks exceeding $86 million. Specifically, around 3.89% of ASTER’s market cap is set to be unlocked, equating to 78.41 million tokens. Fortunately, over 55% of the total supply remains locked, with 7% still without a designated unlocking timeline.

Source: Tokenomist

This token unlock could create additional supply-driven selling pressure, complicating the path to achieving the expected price rally.

Conclusion

In summary, while there is potential for Aster to rise by 30% in December, several factors, including sell pressure from token unlocks and declining on-chain metrics, could create obstacles to this goal. Investors should remain cautious and monitor market developments closely.