Crypto Altseason Unlikely in 2026 as 'Blue-Chip Survivors' Expected to Thrive: Analyst

CoinEx Research's Chief Analyst, Jeff Ko, predicts that the typical altcoin boom will diminish in 2026, with only leading cryptocurrencies, often referred to as “blue-chip” assets, attracting significant investment. Contrary to expectations of a widespread market surge, Ko highlights that only cryptocurrencies with real adoption will see liquidity. Additionally, veteran analyst Peter Brandt suggests that Bitcoin may experience a lengthy downward trend, anticipating its eventual peak around 2029.

Key Takeaways

CoinEx Research predicts a decline in traditional altseason for 2026 with strong focus on blue-chip cryptocurrencies.
Jeff Ko emphasizes that liquidity will be selective and primarily target assets with true market adoption.
Bitcoin is forecasted to reach $180,000 by 2026, although opinions on this vary among analysts.
Veteran analyst Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin's next major price increase around September 2029, following a halving event.
Historical data shows Bitcoin typically performs well in Q4, but current trends indicate a downward trajectory.

Crypto altseason unlikely in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors’ to win out: Analyst

Anticipated Trends for 2026

As traditional altseason approaches, the outlook appears grim, according to CoinEx Research's chief analyst, Jeff Ko. He notes that only established "blue-chip" cryptocurrencies are likely to attract the majority of liquidity. "Retail investors who expect a broad market recovery may be let down," Ko stated in an interview with Cointelegraph. “We foresee no conventional altseason; instead, liquidity will flow selectively to well-adopted assets.”

Ko also noted that while he expects "moderate global liquidity improvements in 2026," varying monetary policies among central banks will impact the market. He mentioned that Bitcoin's sensitivity to the growth of the M2 money supply has diminished since the approval of ETFs in 2024, leading to a weaker correlation. CoinEx's predictions show Bitcoin targeting a price point of $180,000 by 2026.

Nevertheless, not all analysts are optimistic. Veteran trader Peter Brandt foresees a potential extended bear market.

Future Bitcoin Price Peaks

Peter Brandt, a seasoned futures trader, recently stated that Bitcoin has undergone five significant price surges throughout its 15-year history, each followed by declines of at least 80%. He believes that the current market cycle is still active. "The next peak in this cycle is projected for September 2029," Brandt revealed.

This forecast aligns with the four-year cycle theory, which suggests market highs often occur a year after halving events, the next of which is anticipated around April 2028. However, Brandt warns that an 80% drop, similar to previous cycles, could see Bitcoin's value plunge to $25,000 prior to the peak.

Bitcoin’s five parabolic advances. Source: Peter Brandt

Evaluating the Four-Year Cycle Hypothesis

Historically, the last quarter of the year has proven to be a robust period for Bitcoin, with significant gains in eight of the last twelve fourth quarters. Coinglass data shows that only one of these quarters yielded a single-digit gain.

However, Bitcoin has faced challenges this quarter, currently down more than 22%, marking its second-worst Q4 performance to date. According to investing insights from Milk Road, this decrease indicates that the market is flushing out excess risk and weak positions.

At present, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000, reflecting a 30% decline from its all-time high recorded in October.

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