Examining Hyperliquid’s Future After the $9.5 Billion Token Unlock: Only 23% Sold

On November 29th, Hyperliquid unlocked $9.5 billion worth of tokens, and contrary to earlier worries, it did not lead to significant selling pressure. According to on-chain analyst Kirby Crypto, only 23% (609,000 tokens) of the 1.75 million HYPE tokens were sold through OTC desks. He noted, “Overall, there is far more hodling and re-staking than selling. If future unlocks follow this trend, the pressure from unlocks will likely be lower than anticipated.”

Key Takeaways

The recent token unlock did not lead to anticipated selling pressure; only 23% of unlocked tokens were sold.
Over 40% of the unlocked tokens were restaked, indicating strong confidence among holders.
Initial market fears regarding huge sell-offs from token unlocks have proved excessive, with actual pressure significantly lower than projections.
Whale activity suggests increasing investor interest at current prices, potentially leading to future price stability.

Hyperliquid HYPE

Hyperliquid HYPE

Source: X

About four wallets re-staked a total of 234.6K HYPE (approximately 9% of the unlocked supply), while the team also re-staked another 854K HYPE (around 33% of the total unlock) through Hyperlabs. In total, over 40% of the unlocked tokens were restaked, with the remaining 35% held by team members.

Addressing Initial HYPE Selling Concerns

Hyperliquid launched successfully in Q1 2023, offering a decentralized exchange (DEX) experience similar to a centralized exchange (CEX) while maintaining transparency through full on-chain operations. The project did not have any venture capital (VC) backing, hence it avoided the common issue of VC sell-offs during the token generation event (TGE). Consequently, the HYPE token, which was introduced in Q4 2024, skyrocketed from around $4 to an impressive peak of $59 in 2025.

However, the emergence of competitors like Aster and Lighter posed a threat to its market presence. Additionally, the monthly token unlocks, beginning with the recent event, created bearish sentiments among key figures like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes. He predicted that the selling pressure from these unlocks, particularly from team-related tokens, could total about $12 billion over the next two years, based on HYPE’s then-current price. This could translate to $500 million in monthly selling pressure that the ongoing buyback program, projected at $85 million per month, would struggle to absorb—resulting in Hayes selling most of his HYPE holdings and negatively impacting market sentiment.

Notably, the monthly buyback closely matched Hayes’ projections, with $82 million allocated for November.

Hyperliquid HYPE

Source: Tokenomist

HYPE Attracts Whale Interest

The recent unlock led to a selling of 609K HYPE (valued at approximately $20 million), which turned out to be 96% lower than Hayes’ prediction of $500 million. Additionally, the buyback was four times greater than the selling pressure related to the token unlock. Although HYPE experienced a slight dip of 1.7% during the November 29 unlock, trading at $33.80 at the time of publication showed that the event had minimal impact on the market.

Hyperliquid HYPE

Source: CryptoQuant

Moreover, increased whale activity has been observed at these lower price levels, indicating potential accumulation as investors recognize value at current pricing.

Conclusion

As Hyperliquid navigates this post-unlock phase, the initial fears surrounding significant sell pressure appear to be unfounded. The combination of high restaking activity and positive whale interest adds a layer of stability to HYPE, encouraging an optimistic outlook for its future.