HYPE Stabilizes as LIT's Post-Airdrop Selling Pressure Intensifies: What Lies Ahead?

The competition among perpetual decentralized exchanges is intensifying, affecting the market dynamics for Hyperliquid's HYPE and Lighter's LIT tokens. As the market adjusts to LIT's recent airdrop, early analyses suggest a potential recovery for HYPE, despite a downturn in trading volumes and revenues. Investors and traders are keenly watching these developments to gauge the future performance of these tokens.

Key Takeaways

Hyperliquid faces increased competition from rivals like Lighter.
Analyst predictions indicate HYPE might regain strength despite lower trading volumes.
LIT's airdrop led to significant sell-offs, impacting its price and market perception.
HYPE's revenue has seen a considerable decline, but prospects for recovery remain.
Both tokens are critical players in the decentralized exchange landscape.

The Competitive Landscape

The fierce competition in the realm of perpetual decentralized exchanges (Perp DEXes) has led to a stabilization of market leader Hyperliquid. New competitors, including Binance-backed Aster, gained considerable traction in the latter half of 2025. Many analysts view Lighter as a significant challenger to Hyperliquid, particularly due to its privacy features. However, before the anticipated launch and airdrop of Lighter's [LIT] token, Messari's research analyst Sam has downplayed its immediate threat to Hyperliquid. He suggested that HYPE has the potential to outperform LIT in the near term, stating, "HYPE will reprice back to the 'endgame perp DEX.' HYPE investors won't have to worry about fee compression for the foreseeable future."

According to Sam, Lighter's trading volume in perpetual contracts has been 'falling off a cliff,' as the initial period attracting numerous traders from Hyperliquid is coming to an end.

Hyperliquid HYPE Source: DeFiLlama

Revenue Recovery for Hyperliquid

In the latter half of 2025, Hyperliquid observed a notable decline in its perpetual trading volume, plummeting from $396 billion to $165 billion — a dramatic decrease of around 60%.

Hyperliquid HYPE Lighter LIT Source: DeFiLlama

This downturn has also led to reduced fees and revenues, critical for funding HYPE buybacks. In fact, average weekly revenue saw a considerable drop from $20 million in Q3 to a mere $7 million by late December — a staggering 65% revenue shortfall. The combination of continued monthly token unlocks and a slow pace of buybacks has caused bearish sentiment around HYPE. Nevertheless, Sam is optimistic about a potential reversal, especially if Lighter farmers decide to return to Hyperliquid.

Price Actions of HYPE vs. LIT

As Lighter prepares for its token launch, it recently confirmed that 25% of its total supply of 1 billion tokens will be airdropped to early users. Its tokenomics closely resemble that of HYPE, with a one-year vesting period for team members and plans to use revenue for buybacks.

“Revenues from our core DEX product will be allocated between growth and buybacks depending on market conditions," Lighter stated. The initial listing price for LIT was set at $3.30, but it has since declined to $2.70, which represents a 21% decrease over the past week. Additionally, it has experienced a 16% drop in the last 24 hours.

Conversely, HYPE saw an increase of over 2% within a 24-hour period and could shift to a short-term bullish trend if it surpasses its recent peak of $26.40. The next significant resistance level lies at $27.

Hyperliquid HYPE Source: HYPE/USDT, TradingView

Concluding Thoughts

In summary, the evolving landscape of decentralized exchanges continues to impact the performance of HYPE and LIT. Understanding the market dynamics and trading behaviors is crucial for investors looking to navigate this complex environment successfully. As we observe the developments around Hyperliquid's HYPE and Lighter's LIT, the next steps will be critical for both projects in a competitive market.