Market Insights: Fed Rate Cut Impact and Future Prospects for Crypto

Crypto experts are paying close attention to today's Federal Reserve meeting. However, according to Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, the rate cut is no longer the primary focus.

Key Takeaways:

The markets have largely anticipated today’s 25-basis-point rate cut, making Jerome Powell’s tone and future guidance crucial for the crypto landscape.
Barthere also indicates that the anticipated leadership transition to Kevin Hassett in 2026 could positively impact digital assets.
Bitcoin is experiencing significant resistance around the $91,000 mark, with Barthere predicting it will stabilize near this price after the FOMC meeting.

In a communication shared with Cryptonews.com, Barthere emphasized that the anticipated Fed rate cut is already factored into the markets. The critical aspect now is how Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell conveys his outlook and the forthcoming change in leadership slated for early 2026.

The Fed’s Cautious Stance

Barthere anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement the expected 25-basis-point cut, highlighting that policy makers are likely to adopt a data-dependent approach due to the two-month delay in labor market data.

“The Fed is expected to continue with a wait-and-see strategy,” she stated, adding that the terminal rate projection should remain close to 3.0%, indicative of a divided committee.

Beyond today’s meeting, Barthere indicated that the postponed announcement regarding Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed Chair, now expected in early 2026, could yield bullish outcomes for cryptocurrency markets. This leadership change toward a growth-oriented approach might bolster expectations for further monetary easing next year.

On the technical side, Barthere pointed out that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture near the $91,000 level, where the 20-day Exponential Moving Average aligns with a downtrend that started in October. She expects BTC to trade within this range post-FOMC meeting rather than making a notable surge.

The Fed's upcoming meeting takes place amidst a challenging year for the U.S. economy, characterized by deteriorating labor conditions, increasing layoffs, and renewed inflation pressures linked to President Donald Trump’s tariff measures. Additionally, the central bank is working with insufficient recent data due to the U.S. government shutdown, which has postponed the release of hiring and inflation statistics for November.

Despite varying signals, a significant majority of economists predict another quarter-point cut. The CME FedWatch tool estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point move at 89.4%, which would mark the third consecutive rate decrease, adjusting the federal funds rate into the 3.75%–4% bracket.

Potential Bitcoin Surge Post-Fed Meeting

Reports indicate that Bitcoin surpassing $92,000 has rekindled optimism among market observers, who speculate that this week’s Federal Reserve meeting might trigger an even larger rally.

Analysts at the London Crypto Club suggest that a liquidity increase from the Fed on Wednesday could serve as a strong catalyst, potentially pushing the world's leading cryptocurrency even higher.

In their latest insights, David Brickell and Chris Mills suggest that the central bank is likely to announce a “dovish surprise,” predicting that policymakers will infuse liquidity through innovative bond-buying strategies instead of direct quantitative easing.

“We are entering a continued cycle of rate cuts alongside balance sheet expansion, essentially allowing the Fed to reactivate the money printers to manage the deficit,” they expressed.

Meanwhile, a critical on-chain indicator known as “liveliness” is showing an upward trend, even as Bitcoin's price remains relatively stable.

Analysts interpret this divergence as a resurgence in underlying demand, with dormant coins beginning to move after a long period, signaling that long-term holders may be re-engaging with the market. Additionally, Bitfinex reported last week that the market is exhibiting signs of “seller exhaustion” following a phase of aggressive deleveraging and panic-driven exits by short-term holders.