Monero [XMR] Faces Key Challenge After November Surge: What's Next?

Monero (XMR) recently experienced a minor decline following a strong surge earlier in November, where it tested resistance levels near $440. Despite the overall market decline driven by Bitcoin's drop below $90, Monero has performed relatively well compared to other privacy tokens. As the market continues to fluctuate, understanding Monero's upcoming price trajectory is crucial.

Key Takeaways

Monero reached a local high of $440 but has since decreased by 10.6%.
It has shown a 15.8% increase since the beginning of November, while competitors ZCash and Dash faced losses.
Key resistance levels are noted at $518 from April 2021, while support may be found around $350-$360.
Upcoming price movements could present buying opportunities based on current trends and indicators.

Monero recently tested the resistance level at $440 on Sunday, November 30. The broader market downturn, primarily driven by Bitcoin's [BTC] plunge below $90k, led to increased selling pressure on Monero [XMR]. Since reaching that local peak, Monero has experienced a decline of 10.6%. Still, it remains one of the few relatively large-cap cryptocurrencies making strides toward new highs.

Monero vs DASH, ZEC

Source: XMR/USD on TradingView

Since early November, XMR has appreciated by 15.8%. In the same timeframe, leading privacy tokens ZCash [ZEC] and Dash [DASH] have dropped by 22.52% and 15.23%, respectively. Although Monero has shown resilience recently, its performance since September has lagged behind, with ZCash soaring 760% since then compared to Monero's modest growth of 50.3%. Given Monero's relative stability against the market over the past ten days, AMBCrypto explored possible future price movements.

Monero [XMR] Faces Key Challenge

Positive Outlook for Monero

Monero 1-week Chart

Source: XMR/USD on TradingView

Analysis of the weekly trends shows that Monero has successfully surpassed the previous high of $420, indicating a continuation of its bullish trend. The next target is set at $518, the high from April 2021.

Monero 1-day Chart

Source: XMR/USD on TradingView

The daily chart similarly displays a positive swing structure. The imbalance at $360 is anticipated to be targeted in the near future. However, the rejection at $438, the local high reached in mid-November, posed challenges for the bullish side.

Analyzing Key Indicators

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator on the weekly chart points to significant capital inflows, while the daily chart reveals a more uncertain stance. The MACD indicator supports this, showcasing stronger bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe compared to the daily.

Monero Liquidation Map

Source: CoinGlass

According to the liquidation map, there is a higher cumulative liquidation leverage from long positions around $355 than from short positions at $435. This suggests a likelihood of a price drop toward the $355-$360 range in the short term, while the $440-$450 area contains a concentration of high-leverage short positions that traders should monitor.

Evaluating Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for XMR

Key swing lows are identified at $233 and $320, which should be defended as support levels. The combination of the daily chart's imbalance and findings from the liquidation map implies the potential for a price dip. A move down to $350-$360 could provide a buying opportunity.

Conclusion

Disclaimer: The insights offered here are based on the author's perspective and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice.