SOL Traders’ Hopes Realized — Yet New All-Time Highs Remain Elusive: Understanding the Situation

Summary:
Despite favorable developments in Solana's on-chain metrics and growing DApps revenue, SOL has recently experienced selling pressure. While new funds from Solana ETFs and a surge in network activity offer support, macroeconomic challenges in AI and trade could hinder SOL's potential recovery to $250.

Key Takeaways:

Strong on-chain metrics and DApps revenue indicate long-term potential for Solana, despite selling from large holders.
Inflows from Solana ETFs and diverse on-chain activities bolster SOL, although macroeconomic risks tied to AI and trade remain major challenges for a rise to $250.

Solana's native token, SOL, saw a 6% drop after nearing the $172 mark on Monday. This decline closely followed a downturn in the Nasdaq Index, triggered by CoreWeave's (CRVW US) lowered cloud services revenue forecasts and news of potential restrictions on U.S. military access to China's rare-earth minerals. Will SOL be able to return to the $250 level in the near future?

SOL/USD (blue) vs. Altcoin market cap (red). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

In the last two weeks, SOL has underperformed the altcoin market by 7%, even though the overall environment has been relatively positive, highlighted by the introduction of a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. and noticeable growth in Solana’s on-chain activity.

Blockchains ranked by 30-day fees. Source: Nansen

Over the past month, Solana's network activity has increased significantly; active addresses have risen by 10% and transactions by 8%. In contrast, Ethereum reported a 5% decline in active addresses and a 26% drop in transactions within the same timeframe. Hyperliquid, a new contender in the decentralized exchange (DEX) arena, also saw a 28% drop in on-chain activity.

30-day DApp revenue by chain, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Solana continues to lead in revenue generated from decentralized applications (DApps), with no other network coming close, thereby giving Solana a distinct competitive advantage. These DApps incentivize users by sharing portions of their earnings, which helps attract more investments and strengthens the network's overall position.

SOL traders’ every wish came true — except for new all-time highs: What gives?

Analyzing Solana's Diverse Growth Across Multiple Sectors

The total value locked (TVL) in Solana currently stands at $12 billion, significantly outpacing BNB Chain's $8 billion. Over the last 30 days, several projects have seen impressive gains, such as a 35% rise in Securitize (Real World Assets), a 31% increase in Solstice USX (Basis Trading), and a 10% growth in deposits on Meteora (Liquidity Pools). This data indicates that Solana's expansion is diversifying across different sectors rather than relying on a single market.

Weekly DEX volumes by chain, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Previously, launches of memecoins and trading activities were the main drivers for Solana’s user growth and network fees, but that trend diminished by March. Although the token has regained some ground from its 2025 low of $95, traders remain cautious about any immediate upward momentum.

Since their introduction to U.S. markets on October 28, Solana spot ETFs have accumulated $343 million in net inflows. Additionally, the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF has amassed $286 million in assets. However, this positive effect has been somewhat countered by outflows as companies have decreased their SOL holdings.

Solana treasury holdings, SOL. Source: CoinGecko

The recent sale of 439,621 SOL by Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) has raised questions regarding the sustainability of Solana’s corporate reserve strategy. Forward Industries (FORD) currently possesses the largest SOL stake, holding 6.82 million tokens, which has remained stable over the preceding month, according to CoinGecko data.

Related: SOL’s Potential Path to $300 — Three Factors Influencing Solana’s Next Major Rally

Currently, the prospects seem to favor SOL outperforming the overall altcoin market, backed by Solana's consistent growth in on-chain activity and its supremacy in DApps revenue. Nonetheless, its journey back to $250 will likely hinge on reductions in risks associated with the artificial intelligence sector and an easing of geopolitical tensions related to the ongoing global trade war.