Solana’s $14 Million Whale Transaction vs. Retail Exits: A Battle for $130

Solana [SOL]

Solana made a significant upward attempt two days ago but was met with resistance around $144, leading to a retracement and a breach of the crucial $130 support level. As of the latest updates, Solana [SOL] is trading at $131, reflecting a decline of 5.51% for the day. The drop to $129 has opened an opportunity for accumulation that whales and institutional investors quickly seized.

Key Highlights

A Solana whale withdrew 101,365 SOL, roughly valued at $13.89 million, showcasing confidence in a market recovery.
Institutions increased investments in Solana Spot ETFs, reflecting a continued strong demand.
Retail traders, however, have been selling their positions, contributing to downward market pressure.
Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, indicating possible challenges for a market turnaround.

Whale Accumulation Amid Market Pullback

Data from Onchain Lens reveals that a long-term Solana whale recently withdrew a substantial 101,365 SOL from Kraken, amounting to about $13.89 million. Following these transactions, the whale's total Solana holdings increased to 628,564 SOL, valued at around $84.13 million. Notably, 519,217 SOL is held in a private wallet, and 109,348 SOL is staked for yield. This strategic move during a market downturn implies that the whale has substantial confidence in a potential market recovery, which could signal a bullish outlook.

Solana whale transaction

Institutional Buying Continues

Alongside the whale accumulation, institutional buyers have been actively purchasing Solana Spot ETFs throughout December. According to data from SoSoValue, these ETFs have experienced net inflows for five consecutive days. Since their launch in late October, they have only recorded net outflows on three occasions, indicating robust demand from institutions. As a result, total net assets for these ETFs have reached $949.1 million, nearing the $1 billion milestone, suggesting ongoing institutional confidence despite price fluctuations.

Solana Spot ETF

Retail Selling Pressure Persists

Interestingly, while whales and institutions have shown strong buying pressure, retail traders have been actively selling their positions. The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) turned positive for the first time in nearly two weeks, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. When this metric appears red, it indicates sellers dominate the market with more selling orders compared to buying requests.

Solana Spot CVD

Coinalyze corroborates this trend, reporting that on December 11th, Solana recorded 1.31 million in sell volume versus 1.15 million in buy volume, leading to a Buy-Sell Delta of -158.77k. This significant retail selling has added more downward pressure, despite whales and institutions absorbing the supply.

Sol Buy Sell Volume

Bearish Momentum Indicators

Our analysis shows that the ongoing accumulation by larger holders has not effectively countered the rising retail selling pressure. The SMI Ergodic Indicator registered a bearish crossover, dropping to -0.103, indicating weakening buying momentum. Concurrently, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Moving Average (MA) indicators are tightening under bearish conditions, with the MA decreasing to $135 and the EMA rising slightly to $136. This situation suggests continuous short-term selling pressure. If the selling persists, SOL might revisit levels below $130, with $123 emerging as the next significant support level.

For buyers to regain control, SOL must flip the EMA at $136 and close above $146, which is linked to its last failed breakout attempt.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics for Solana highlight a contrasting sentiment between institutional investors and retail traders. While whales and institutions are actively accumulating and investing, retail traders are experiencing selling pressures. How these trends evolve will significantly influence Solana's price trajectory in the near term.