Toncoin Surpasses December Resistance at $1.7 – Is It Time to Buy?

Toncoin (TON) has recently experienced a notable price rally, driven in part by Telegram's announcement of a self-custodial wallet in the US. Despite some bullish sentiments from investors, on-chain metrics may suggest caution for potential buyers.

Key Takeaways

Current Performance: Toncoin rose by 2% in the last 24 hours and 12.5% over the past week.
Investor Insights: Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital named Toncoin as a top pick for 2026.
On-Chain Data: Indicators show a lack of accumulation and frequent sell-offs among holders, suggesting market caution.
Market Trends: Toncoin has struggled against a backdrop of strong Bitcoin performance, raising doubts about its near-term appeal.
Possible Short-term Gains: A bounce from the $1.70 support level could bring Toncoin to $1.89 and $2.01.

Toncoin 1-day Chart
Source: TON/USDT on TradingView

Toncoin [TON] has observed a 2% increase in price over the last day, with a total weekly increase of 12.5%. This positive movement is largely attributed to Telegram’s recent initiative to launch a self-custodial wallet in the United States. Investment firm Skybridge Capital's founder, Anthony Scaramucci, highlighted Toncoin as one of his top picks for 2026 in his conversation with Altcoin Daily. He believes that the growth of the Telegram network will boost demand for the token and mentioned his purchase of Toncoin when its price was $7.50. At present, TON is trading at approximately $1.72.

Toncoin Santiment
Source: Santiment

The supply zone noted in November caused a shift in market dynamics when it broke at the start of the new year, attracting attention from traders and investors.

Toncoin climbs above December resistance at $1.7 - Time to buy it now?

Should You Consider Buying Toncoin?

Despite the recent price increase, the on-chain metrics for Toncoin suggest some hesitation. While the Open Interest has risen since October, it's still below its peak in August. Additionally, the average coin age has not increased since October, indicating a lack of accumulation across the network. Frequent sell-offs driven by panic or profit-taking have become apparent. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) has also been increasing, yet it remains negative, indicating that holders of Toncoin over the past three months are, on average, incurring small losses.

Token Terminal’s data reflects that the weekly active user count for TON has stagnated over the past year after a noticeable spike at the end of 2024.

Toncoin Supply Distribution
Source: Santiment

The supply distribution analysis reveals that only smaller holders are actively buying and holding Toncoin, while larger holders are selling, shown by the declining number of wallets with 1,000 or more TON. Additionally, the general performance of altcoins has been weak in 2025, with Bitcoin outperforming other assets, particularly in traditional asset classes like ETFs, making it more challenging for altcoins to capture public interest.

Overall, Toncoin does not present strong indications of growth or positive price action to encourage mass adoption. However, it could experience a short-term bounce from the $1.70 support level, possibly reaching the retracement points of $1.89 and $2.01.

Final Thoughts

As the market evolves, investors should weigh the pros and cons carefully. While Toncoin has shown some positive price movement, the underlying metrics may warrant cautious consideration before making purchasing decisions.