XRP Approaches $1.40: SOPR Indicates Capitulation

XRP Approaches $1.40: SOPR Indicates Capitulation - Is a Recovery on the Horizon?

Ripple's XRP has come under significant selling pressure as coin holders are increasingly selling at a loss, as highlighted by the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which recently declined from approximately 1.16 to 0.96. This suggests growing stress among investors, signaling capitulation among weaker holders. Despite these challenges, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) shows robust activity, and the structure of XRP's market dynamics bears resemblance to previous recovery patterns.

Key Takeaways

XRP's price is nearing $1.40, experiencing increased distribution pressure.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped below 1.0, indicating more investors are selling at a loss.
The XRP Ledger continues to demonstrate strong structural activity, with stable daily transactions.
Active user participation remains steady, which could signal resilience in the ecosystem.
Historical patterns suggest that recovery may be possible if market conditions stabilize.

XRP Approaches $1.40: SOPR Indicates Capitulation - Is a Recovery on the Horizon?

Current Market Dynamics for XRP

Ripple's XRP is encountering renewed selling pressure, as many holders are now moving their coins at a loss. This trend is reflected in the recent decline of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) from about 1.16 to 0.96. This decrease suggests that sellers are accepting lower prices than their original purchase point, indicating a growing level of stress among market participants.

In earlier phases of the market, SOPR typically remained above the 1.05 to 1.15 range, coinciding with XRP's rise toward the $3 mark. During that phase, investors were realizing profits as a bullish momentum attracted new investment.

XRP Chart Source: Glassnode

Unfortunately, as market volatility returned, the selling pressure increased, eroding confidence among investors and altering market sentiment. While XRP's price is now approaching $1.40, the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of SOPR has dipped below the 1.0 threshold. This indicates that a higher volume of transactions is resulting in losses rather than gains, a scenario often linked to capitulation among weaker holders. Meanwhile, stronger market participants are waiting for clearer signals, leading to a divided sentiment across the XRP ecosystem.

Strong Activity in XRPL

Despite the selling pressure during the first quarter of 2026, which has driven XRP's value toward $1.40, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) shows a solid structural foundation. The network has conducted between 1.8 million and 2.5 million successful transactions daily, reflecting steady usage even amid the decline in prices.

Moreover, the throughput of XRPL remains constant at around 18 to 25 transactions per second, demonstrating reliable settlement capacity during market fluctuations.

XRPL Throughput Source: XRPScan

Active Addresses have also remained stable, fluctuating between 35,000 and 40,000. This consistency indicates that user engagement within the network is holding up rather than collapsing.

Active Addresses Source: Glassnode

Additionally, the XRP Ledger boasts over 7.68 million activated accounts, underscoring the long-term growth potential of the ecosystem. This sustained activity implies that essential operations—like utility-driven flows, cross-border transfers, and decentralized exchange functions—continue regardless of weakening market sentiment and retail capitulation.

Resemblance to Previous Recovery Conditions

As of now, XRP trades near $1.40 during this correction phase, and Realized Losses have reached -$1.93 billion, reflecting the largest weekly downturn since 2022. A similar situation unfolded during the 2021-2022 cycle when XRP saw a decline from $1.96 to $0.30 amid ongoing capitulation. During that period, SOPR consistently fell below 1.0, indicating continuous selling at a loss.

However, positive recovery signs began to emerge as network participation increased. More users engaged with the platform, even as prices remained low. Daily Active Addresses later surged nearly 490% from the lowest levels in 2022, despite subdued pricing. This divergence ultimately preceded a remarkable 114% price rally over the next eight months.

Currently, XRP maintains the participation of around 35,000 to 40,000 active addresses. If SOPR can reclaim 1.0, it could trigger a shift toward stabilization and potential recovery.

Conclusion

In summary, XRP's current market conditions reveal increased selling pressure and capitulation signs among weaker holders, evidenced by a declining SOPR. However, the XRPL's strong activity and historical patterns suggest potential pathways for recovery if positive market indicators emerge.