XRP Price Decline Continues Despite Ripple's Positive Swell Announcements: Is $2 the Next Target?

Summary: XRP has experienced a significant drop in value, falling over 9% after the recent Ripple Swell event, which featured promising announcements. Despite hopeful news about funding and new features, the coin's performance continues to reflect historical trends of price decline post-event. Technical indicators suggest a potential further drop towards $1.65.

Key Takeaways

XRP has dropped over 9% following Ripple's Swell event, continuing its losing streak in November.
A technical bear flag pattern and an upcoming death cross indicate a possible decline towards the $1.65 mark.

XRP price slips despite Ripple’s bullish Swell announcements: Is $2 next?

Ripple's Swell Announcements Fail to Boost XRP Price

After reaching approximately $2.40 on November 5, XRP has seen a decline of over 9%, falling to around $2.19, despite Ripple’s positive announcements during its Swell event.

This year’s Swell took place on November 4-5 in New York, where Ripple announced a $500 million funding round backed by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group. They also shared plans for new integrations with the RLUSD stablecoin and hinted at a decentralized lending protocol on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

XRP/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, XRP’s price has fallen again, highlighting the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern that often follows Ripple's annual events. Notably, for four out of the last five years, XRP has experienced negative returns from the time of the Swell event to the end of the year, indicating that excitement typically fades quicker than anticipated.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Additionally, Bitcoin's recent drop below $100,000 due to weaknesses in the equity market and tighter U.S. liquidity has dampened sentiment across all altcoins, including XRP.

Technical Indicators Suggest Further Decline Below $2

The recent price actions of XRP have confirmed a classic bear flag continuation pattern, further reinforced by the impending death cross. This technical pattern occurs when the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-period EMA.

The bear flag emerged after XRP's notable fall from around $3.60 in early September, followed by a brief period of consolidation that leaned towards an upward direction around $2.60.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The decisive rejection from the upper boundary of the flag, along with a breach below the lower boundary, indicates that sellers are becoming more dominant in the market. As such, it is now plausible for XRP to decline towards the range of $1.65 to $1.70. This projection aligns with the bear flag’s measured move target as well as support seen in April.

According to data from Glassnode, this downside target also coincides with XRP’s aggregated realized price.

XRP spot vs. aggregated realized price chart. Source: Glassnode

The aggregated realized price reflects the average on-chain cost basis across all wallet cohorts, meaning that a retest of this level could signify a crucial value zone where long-term holders are likely to accumulate. This convergence often functions as both a psychological and technical support floor, potentially limiting any further downward pressure on the price.