XRP Price Faces Potential 25% Drop to $1.55: Here's Why It Matters

XRP price at risk of a 25% drop to $1.55: Here is why

Summary:
The price of XRP is currently at risk of a significant drop, with analysis indicating a potential decline of up to 25%, bringing it down to $1.55. This forecast stems from the identification of a bearish descending triangle pattern, a deteriorating relative strength index (RSI), and decreased daily active addresses pointing to reduced network activity.

Key Takeaways:

XRP has formed a bearish descending triangle, indicating a possible decline of 25% to $1.55.
A bearish divergence in the weekly RSI suggests increasing downward price momentum.
A decrease in daily active addresses reveals low network activity, posing heightened risks for XRP sell-offs.

Understanding the Bearish Trend in XRP

Recent trading for XRP shows a drop of 11% from its value last week, raising concerns of a further decline towards $1.55 as several indicators align to suggest an impending correction.

XRP's Descending Triangle Pattern

The XRP price chart has confirmed a descending triangle pattern on the eight-hour timeframe, particularly since falling below the psychological $3 level in October. This pattern is defined by a flat support line and a downward-sloping resistance line and typically resolves when the price breaks through the support level, leading to a drop close to the triangle's maximum height.

XRP/USD eight-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Recently, the XRP/USD pair confirmed this bearish pattern by dropping beneath the critical support level of $2.20. The bulls are currently attempting to defend the $2 support; however, breaching this level could easily push the XRP price to the targeted $1.55 by the end of November, equating to a 25% decline.

This forecast aligns with prior analyses that warned of a potential decrease to $1.61 if critical support levels fail to hold. Moreover, data from Glassnode indicates a significant cluster of XRP supply between $2.38 and $2.40, creating a robust resistance area — adding to the selling pressure.

XRP/USD cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

The Implications of Bearish Divergence in the RSI

The downward trend for XRP is further supported by a bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI). From November 2024 to July 2025, the XRP/USD pair rose, establishing higher highs. However, during this same span, the weekly RSI fell from 92 to 68, thus forming lower highs.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Typically, a divergence where prices are rising while the RSI is falling suggests an underlying weakness in the current uptrend. Traders could respond by selling more at local highs to realize profits as buyer interest wanes. The RSI has since dropped to 39, indicating that the market still favors further downside potential. Additionally, XRP is encountering strong resistance at the 50-week SMA level of $2.32, which could further inhibit price growth in the upcoming weeks.

Decreased XRP Ledger Network Activity

XRP Ledger's network activity has been limited over the past four months. Onchain data provided by Glassnode shows that daily active addresses (DAAs) on the platform have fallen significantly from a peak of 577,000 DAAs recorded on June 14, now down to only 44,000 DAAs.

XRP daily active addresses. Source: Glassnode

Furthermore, the emergence of new active addresses has sunk to around 4,000 per day, down from approximately 13,500 on November 10, indicating a decline in network engagement and adoption. Generally, a decrease in network activity can pinpoint upcoming price stagnation or declines, as lower transaction volumes lessen liquidity and buying momentum.

In conclusion, XRP's current market environment is characterized by bearish patterns and indicators that could signal a difficult path ahead. Investors should remain vigilant as market dynamics continue to evolve.