1.6 Million BTC Re-Introduced by Long-Term Holders Since 2024

K33 Predicts Exiting Long-Term Bitcoin Sellers May Be Nearing Their Limit

K33 Says Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Selling May Be Nearing Exhaustion

As reported by the research and brokerage firm K33, long-term Bitcoin holders may be close to finishing their selling spree, following years of selling pressure.

Key Takeaways:

Since 2024, approximately 1.6 million BTC from long-term holders has re-entered circulation.
K33 indicates that this selling trend points to intentional distribution rather than just technical movements of wallets.
Institutional liquidity has allowed early investors to cash out at favorable prices.

K33 suggests that many early investors have already taken profits, potentially changing the market's dynamics.

In an insightful report, K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, noted a consistent decline in Bitcoin supply held in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that are older than two years since 2024.

During this time frame, about 1.6 million BTC, equivalent to approximately $138 billion at current market prices, has been added back into circulation. This trend is indicative of continuous selling from early investors.

Lunde emphasized that this drop suggests intentional distribution rather than simple technical adjustments. He noted that while some reactivations could be linked to events like Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust converting to an ETF or security upgrades, those reasons do not justify the extensive movement of Bitcoin observed.

“The figures indicate significant selling rather than just coin reshuffling,” Lunde stated.

K33 indicates that 2024 and 2025 are set to be the second- and third-highest years for long-term supply activation, only trailing 2017. Unlike that earlier cycle, which was predominantly influenced by Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and altcoin speculation, the current scenario seems driven by significant selling into greater institutional liquidity.

Lunde pointed out the rise of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and an increase in corporate treasury demand as critical factors facilitating this change.

The report acknowledged sizable transactions as proof of this trend, including an 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale handled by Galaxy in July, a whale trading 24,000 BTC for ether in August, and the sale of about 11,000 BTC from October to November.

K33 believes this type of activity has been prevalent among large holders and has likely contributed heavily to Bitcoin's underwhelming performance in 2025.

Overall, K33 estimates that around $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that is over a year old has been reactivated this year alone.

Lunde remarked that the influx of institutional liquidity has permitted long-term holders to exit their positions at impressive six-digit prices, leading to a decrease in ownership concentration and the establishment of new market cost bases.

K33 Foresees Diminishing Sell-Side Pressure as Long-Term Supply Stabilizes

Looking forward, K33 predicts that sell-side pressure will diminish. “With 20% of Bitcoin’s supply reactivated over the past two years, we expect on-chain selling pressure to come close to saturation,” Lunde mentioned.

He anticipates that the two-year supply will stabilize and conclude 2026 at a level above the current approximately 12.16 million BTC.

The firm also noted possible portfolio rebalancing as the current quarter transitions. Historically, Bitcoin has shown tendencies to move inversely at the start of a new quarter after a prior quarter of underperformance. Following a downturn against other asset classes in Q4, Bitcoin could attract fresh inflows in late December and early January as managers realign their fixed allocations.

As reported, leaders like Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, and analysts at Grayscale both predict that Bitcoin will surpass its previous all-time high, even while common perceptions suggest 2026 might be a year of retreat.