$3.16 Billion in Crypto Options Expiry Clouds Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Next Moves

The expiry of over $3.16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options on Friday at 08:00 UTC on Deribit represents the last major derivatives settlement before Christmas.

As the holiday season approaches, liquidity is dwindling, and traders are showing caution, choosing to wait for clearer signals before making significant commitments in their trading strategies.

What You Need to Know About Nearly $3 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expiry

The Bitcoin options expiry accounts for a substantial portion, with about $2.69 billion in notional value set to roll off. At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading at $87,194, reflecting a 0.54% increase over the past 24 hours.

Today's max pain level for Bitcoin options is at $88,000, placing the spot price just underneath this key strike. This level indicates where the most options will expire worthless.

Open interest analysis shows a fairly balanced, yet slightly cautious stance. Bitcoin call options total 17,506 contracts, compared to 13,309 put options, resulting in an overall open interest of 30,815 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.76.

Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit

Even though calls make up the majority, the concentration of positions around $88,000 suggests limited upward movement unless Bitcoin's spot price decisively breaks through this level. Analysts from Deribit noted, “BTC open interest is concentrated around 88K, with slightly heavier put positioning, indicating a fairly contained expiry unless the spot price breaks out of range.” This analysis supports the expectation that Bitcoin may remain stable as the expiry approaches, especially considering the cautious sentiment typical during the holiday season.

Ethereum's $470 Million Options Expiry: Key Insights for Investors

Ethereum presents a contrasting scenario, with around $473 million in ETH options due to expire. Currently, Ethereum is trading at $2,928, marking a 3.37% increase over the past 24 hours. The max pain level for Ethereum options is set higher, at $3,100, indicating that the spot price is significantly lower than this critical level.

The open interest for Ethereum shows a more balanced distribution, with 78,524 call contracts against 83,547 put contracts. This creates a put-to-call ratio of 1.06 and a total open interest of 162,071 contracts.

Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit

Unlike Bitcoin, ETH positions are distributed across a wider range of strikes, reflecting a higher level of uncertainty about its immediate direction. Analysts from Deribit stated, “ETH positioning is more distributed across strikes, with notable interest in upside positions above 3.4K, keeping potential for larger moves if volatility increases.” They suggested that traders are opting for patience leading up to the settlement, which will take place today at 08:00 UTC, as they await more definitive market signals rather than pushing for direction prematurely.

Looking beyond today’s expiry, interest is shifting to options set for December 26 and into early 2026. Deribit Insights noted, “The December 26 85k put open interest is now approximately 15k ($1.25bn notional), with current market sentiment under the influence of bears and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), especially with the ATM at 86k.” It appears that upside bets are less aggressive in the near term, with analysts observing that “the Dec26 100k+ $1.75bn call condor seems like a long shot at this point.”

However, recent trends in longer-dated options suggest a more positive outlook, indicating an inclination towards bullish positions as we head into 2026. This suggests while short-term sentiment may remain cautious, traders with a longer perspective are preparing for a potential bullish resurgence.

As the final options expiry of the year arrives before Christmas, both Bitcoin and Ethereum find themselves at a crossroads between short-term caution and long-term optimism, leaving their next major moves uncertain.

Market players may experience some volatility in the wake of these events, which could be influenced further by the interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan. Historically, markets tend to stabilize as traders adapt to shifting conditions.

Key Takeaways:

Over $3.16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring soon, creating market uncertainty.
Bitcoin sees $2.69 billion in options, with key price considerations around $88,000.
Ethereum’s options worth $473 million are set to expire, with a max pain level at $3,100.
Recent positioning for Bitcoin indicates caution, while Ethereum shows broader distribution in its options.
Long-term sentiments for both cryptocurrencies lean towards optimism despite short-term volatility concerns.