3 Signals from the Gold Market Indicating Bitcoin’s Price May Be Near a Low

Recently, gold prices experienced a slight pullback after soaring to new highs. In contrast, Bitcoin has not performed well during its traditionally strongest quarter, leading to ongoing comparisons between these two assets. Despite Bitcoin's struggles, analysts are pointing to several signals from the gold market—macroeconomic, statistical, and technical—that suggest BTC might soon reach a bottom, priming it for its next major price movement.

Key Takeaways

Gold often reaches its peak before Bitcoin, as shown in past market cycles.
Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin may recover after commodities like gold and silver take the lead.
Technical indicators, including the BTC/GOLD ratio, suggest a potential turning point for Bitcoin in the near future.

Gold and Silver Trends Precede Bitcoin Movement

From a broader economic perspective, analysts argue that gold and silver commonly hit their highs before Bitcoin begins its ascent. This observation was highlighted by an analyst on X (formerly Twitter), who illustrated a significant correlation.

Following the market downturn in March 2020, the Federal Reserve injected large amounts of liquidity, which led to a flight to safe-haven assets. During this period, gold surged from around $1,450 to $2,075 by August 2020, while silver rose from $12 to $29. In contrast, Bitcoin fluctuated between $9,000 and $12,000 for five months, as noted in an analysis by BullTheory.

"After a substantial liquidation event in March 2020, coinciding with COVID-19, capital started to shift towards riskier assets once precious metals peaked in August," the analysis explained. This shift contributed to Bitcoin skyrocketing from $12,000 to $64,800 by May 2021, marking an impressive 5.5x increase, which led to a significant boost in the total crypto market cap.

Currently, gold prices are near record levels of approximately $4,550, while silver hovers around $80. In comparison, Bitcoin has been primarily moving sideways, mirroring the patterns observed in mid-2020. The analyst noted, "We also witnessed a significant liquidation event on October 10th, akin to what happened in March 2020. Once again, Bitcoin has remained sluggish for months following that."

The analyst believes that the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve was crucial back in 2020. Interestingly, several catalysts are emerging in 2026, such as renewed liquidity injections, anticipated interest rate cuts, potential SLR exemptions for banks, clearer cryptocurrency regulations, potential dividend checks under the Trump administration, more accessible spot crypto ETFs, easier entry for major asset managers, and a more accommodating Federal Reserve leadership for cryptocurrencies.

"The last cycle was driven by liquidity. This time, there’s additional structural support. The current setup mirrors the past, but with even more potential energy. Historically, gold and silver leading the charge isn’t bad for crypto. It often serves as an early indicator. If this trend holds, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies typically follow after metals stabilize. Thus, the current lull in BTC isn’t the onset of a bear market but rather a stillness before the impending surge," commented BullTheory.

Bitcoin’s Decoupling from Gold and Stocks Signals Opportunity

Another significant indicator comes from Bitcoin's changing correlation with gold and traditional stocks. Analyst PlanB observed that Bitcoin is increasingly diverging from its typical relationships with both gold and the stock market. Such a decoupling happened previously when Bitcoin traded below $1,000, leading to a tenfold price increase.

"This has occurred before when BTC was under $1K, resulting in a 10-time surge," wrote PlanB.

BTC and Gold Correlation

The analyst did, however, warn that as markets evolve, the connections between different assets can change, meaning that past patterns may not necessarily repeat.

BTC/GOLD Ratio: A Sign of Potential Market Bottoming

On a technical level, the BTC/GOLD ratio is signaling a crucial message. Macro strategist Gert van Lagen pointed out that the ratio's RSI is currently touching a key downtrend line for the fifth time in its history.

Historically, this occurrence has often aligned with significant bear market bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, each followed by Bitcoin regaining strength compared to gold and establishing higher lows. If this trend continues, then the present conditions might signal a similar turning point for Bitcoin.

Thus, if these historical, statistical, and technical signals remain valid, the current divergence could indicate a transitional phase rather than ongoing weakness, potentially setting the stage for a Bitcoin resurgence once precious metals stabilize and investors' risk appetite returns.