4chan Trader Who Predicted Bitcoin’s October Peak Now Forecasts $250,000 by 2026

An anonymous user from 4chan, who successfully identified Bitcoin's peak on October 6, 2025, nearly two years in advance, is back with an even bolder prediction. This trader now anticipates that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2026.

Key Takeaways

An anonymous 4chan user who correctly predicted Bitcoin's October 2025 peak now forecasts a price of $250,000 by 2026.
Their earlier model emphasized a time-based cycle, suggesting periods of growth followed by declines.
Current indicators indicate a bearish trend, raising caution among analysts about short-term performance.
Historical patterns show that significant price increases may still follow current corrections as structural factors remain favorable.

The forecast has emerged once more in cryptocurrency discussions, coinciding with many on-chain and technical indicators showing a bearish trend.

A Track Record of Accuracy, Not Just a Price Guess

In a post from December 2023, the anonymous poster focused on a model based on time cycles rather than predicting a specific price. This theory was grounded in historical patterns. It suggested that there is a cycle of approximately 1,064 days from bear-market lows to all-time highs, followed by around 364 days of decline.

This structure predicted the next peak to occur on October 6, 2025, which aligned closely with when Bitcoin hit its maximum value before experiencing a drop just four days later.

The precision of this forecast has given credibility to the new prediction, even among critics. In their latest update, the anonymous trader asserts that the overall structure remains intact. They believe that the current downturn is merely a reset phase before the next growth spurt, with 2026 marked as the time when prices might reach new heights.

Current Bitcoin Trends Appear Bearish

At present, short-term indicators suggest a different scenario. The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) has declined from historically high levels typically seen at the tail end of market cycles.

Momentum indicators show weakness, and Bitcoin’s price has struggled to regain key psychological support levels since the October peak.

Bitcoin Combined Market Index
Source: CryptoQuant

Moreover, the demand growth for Bitcoin, gauged by new buyer activity, has significantly slowed from the highs of early 2025. Similar drop-offs in demand have preceded significant market corrections in previous cycles, including those in 2021 and 2017.

From a traditional analysis perspective, these signs indicate the need for caution.

"We have been discussing Bitcoin entering a bear market since early November. Yes, we are currently in a bear market primarily due to declining demand," remarked analyst Julio Moreno on Twitter.

The anonymous prediction counters the notion that current bearish signals indicate the end of the entire cycle. Historical trends show that previous bull markets also faced extensive corrections and demand resets before making their final parabolic rises.

Structural factors remain favorable, as Bitcoin supply growth continues to slow post-halving. The foundational infrastructure for institutional investment, including ETFs and payment systems, continues to develop even as speculative interest wanes.

Traditionally, the strongest upward trends have emerged after periods filled with skepticism rather than optimism. The $250,000 target for 2026 is posited not as a matter of personal sentiment but as a projection that follows the dynamics of previous cycles.

Whether this prediction will eventually hold true or not, it underscores a familiar pattern in Bitcoin markets: short-term bearish indicators often appear well before the conclusion of long-term cycles.

For now, Bitcoin finds itself in a precarious position.