$65K at Stake? Fidelity Raises Concerns About Bitcoin's 2026 Prospects

Bitcoin continues to present mixed signals, leaving even major asset managers divided regarding its price outlook for 2026.

Key Takeaways

Diverse Predictions: Some major players in the cryptocurrency market, like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase, are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $150,000 in 2026.
Skeptical Views: Conversely, Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity expresses doubt about the end of bear markets, citing significant price levels for Bitcoin at $65,000 and $45,000.
Market Sentiment: While some are predicting a potential upside for Bitcoin, others point to bearish indicators, suggesting caution moving forward.

Bitcoin Outlook 2026

Mixed Predictions for Bitcoin's Future

In the bullish camp, firms such as VanEck and Bitwise believe the historical four-year cycle may have reached its end, particularly after Bitcoin closed 2025 in a downtrend, which is unusual compared to past patterns. They argue that Bitcoin may closely follow U.S. equities, potentially propelling BTC prices higher and minimizing the chance of a typical bear market.

On the contrary, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, is wary of these optimistic forecasts. He recently commented, "I’m skeptical of the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen. For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k."

Bitcoin Trends

Declining Capital Inflows

CryptoQuant data suggests Bitcoin entered a bear market in early November after falling below its one-year moving average. Founder Ki Young Ju supports this bearish stance, highlighting signs of weakening capital growth momentum at the network level, which is tracked through the Realized Cap indicator.

CryptoQuant Analysis

Historically, a slowdown or decline in Realized Cap has preceded previous BTC bear markets in 2018-2020 and 2022-2023. However, capital inflow growth has typically aligned with bullish trends. In November 2025, Realized Cap flagged the risk of a bear market for the first time since 2023. Should the stagnation or decline of Realized Cap persist, it could amplify bearish sentiments and challenge the more upbeat predictions for 2026.

Is the Market Cycle Peaking?

On the other hand, VanEck posits that the current market cycle has not reached its peak and that a new high could still emerge in 2026. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, mentions that the market hasn't topped out yet. He references the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), a crucial cycle indicator, which currently remains below 0.70 — a level that has historically indicated market tops. With the RUP reading at 0.43 as of now, there is potential for a further rally, despite Bitcoin's surge to $126,000 last year.

Market Analysis

Concluding Thoughts

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the divergent views on Bitcoin's path for 2026 highlight the uncertainty and complexity of cryptocurrency investments. It remains essential for investors to stay informed and consider various analyses before making decisions about their portfolios.