A Coming Storm: Bear Market on the Horizon, Expert Advises

Tony Severino, a market analyst from fintech platform YouHodler, indicates that Bitcoin is currently experiencing an uptrend, yet warns of potential bearish conditions ahead. He highlights that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at a crucial juncture, suggesting that 2026 could be a pivotal year for BTC.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is still in an uptrend, but a bear market may be approaching, with 2026 expected to be decisive.
The $100,000 mark is a critical psychological level; failure to hold this will suggest the end of the bull run.
Q1 2026 will be essential in determining the market direction, with $74,000 acting as significant support.
Ethereum may start to outperform Bitcoin, but if the market declines, it could mainly hold better than Bitcoin rather than grow faster.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's Uptrend Amidst Warning Signs

Currently, Bitcoin is showing an upward trend, and the bull market continues. However, Tony Severino from YouHodler indicates that bearish signals are emerging, suggesting that a storm could be on the way. Although some believe Ethereum's performance may change, it still lags behind Bitcoin for now. Severino predicts that 2026 could be the most crucial year yet for Bitcoin.

Severino confirms that Bitcoin is technically still in an uptrend. However, there is significant overhead resistance, and Bitcoin will need to reclaim the 50-week moving average, currently around $102,000.

The $100,000 mark becomes an essential psychological barrier, raising the risk of a potential "bull trap." A move above $100,000 might lead to a heightened bullish sentiment, potentially making investors overlook warnings of a market reversal. Severino advises, “If bulls can reclaim and maintain the $100,000 support for an extended time, the likelihood of entering a bear market diminishes.”

Bear Market Signals

As we look ahead, Q1 2026 will be pivotal, according to the analyst. This period will guide the overall sentiment for the rest of the year. Given the long-term trends and market cycles, Severino states there is a heightened risk that Bitcoin may enter a bear market. If Bitcoin fails to regain and hold above $100,000, it could signal that the bull market has ended.

To transition into a bear market, Bitcoin would need to make a "lower low." Consequently, the $74,000 support level becomes crucial for bulls to defend in order to sustain a bullish outlook. Falling below this level would likely confirm the bear market, pushing the next support target down to around $53,000.

As Severino states, “Technical indicators may soon indicate that we are at a true bear market bottom once specific levels are reached.”

Momentum Analysis

Severino points out that he is closely monitoring the technical indicators tied to market momentum. He offers an analogy: “Even when a car hits the brakes quickly, strong momentum can lead to a crash.” It could take time for the current bearish momentum to shift to bullish.

One technical indicator he focuses on is the six-week LMACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence), which has recently confirmed a bearish crossover. Historically, it may take anywhere from 200 to 365 days for a bottom to form after such signals.

“I would need to see the monthly LMACD lines start converging towards a bullish crossover before concluding that the theory of a bear market is no longer valid,” Severino adds.

Examining the Four-Year Cycle

Severino firmly believes, “2026 will be Bitcoin’s turning point.” The year 2025 has been riddled with uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors and political tensions.

The yearly candlestick for Bitcoin in 2025 is projected to close as a Doji, which often signals a pause in trends. This pattern could lead to either a reversal or a continuation of the current trend. “In simple terms, Bitcoin will either confirm the four-year cycle continues into a bear market or break free with another bullish run,” he explains.

Trading View BTC

Severino also suggests that volatility is brewing on short timeframes while higher timeframes present an unusually calm market. “A single spark may ignite this calmness into a significant move,” he fears.

Ethereum's Role in the Market

Ethereum, according to Severino, remains relatively weak compared to Bitcoin but is set for a change. The ETH/BTC pair indicates that Ethereum might start outperforming Bitcoin longer term.

However, he cautions that in a downward market, this outperformance might reflect Ethereum holding stronger rather than showcasing superior growth compared to Bitcoin. This disparity in performance between Bitcoin and Ethereum could yield favorable trading opportunities even amid bearish conditions.

Ethereum Trading View

Factors that could negatively impact Bitcoin while boosting Ethereum include adverse sentiment toward Bitcoin or Ethereum being considered more oversold. If Ethereum can stimulate positive sentiment in the crypto market, it could potentially lead to an unexpected altcoin season, Severino concludes. However, if Ethereum fails to spark interest in altcoins, we could witness a market purge of underperforming projects.