Almost Half of Bitcoin Supply Currently at a Loss: Historical Context Suggests a Potential Bottom

Bitcoin BTC

As the Bitcoin market faces declining prices, nearly 50% of its supply is now trading at a loss—a significant indicator that has previously marked the bottom in the last three bear markets.

Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a downward trajectory, adding to the sharp decline that began back in October 2025. During this downturn, the market has lost over $1.2 trillion in value as investors look for signs of stabilization. Fresh data indicates that close to half of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently at a loss, meaning these coins are trading below their original purchase price, which is about $66,500. This particular metric has historically signified a low point in the past three market cycles.

Key Points

48.7% of Bitcoin Circulating Supply Below Cost Basis: Market analyst Crypto Rand showcased the fact that nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now at a loss, highlighting that this condition historically signaled the bottom of prior cycles.
Data from CryptoQuant backs this up, revealing that 48.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—approximately 9.7 million BTC—is below the current price of $66,500, following a 47% drop from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025.

Bitcoin Supply in Loss

Previously, similar conditions were noted when Bitcoin was priced at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015. Each of these levels subsequently marked the bottom of the bear market, leading to significant recovery phases. During those times, the large volume of coins at a loss indicated that weaker investors had sold off, easing selling pressure and paving the way for recovery.

Current Market Sentiment Reflects Historical Low Levels of Fear

Currently, market sentiment is steeped in pessimism. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 11, indicating Extreme Fear, which is significantly lower than the 20 recorded during the November 2022 bottom and aligns with the 11 recorded in early December 2018, when Bitcoin reached its low for that cycle.

On-chain analysis also reveals that the share of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) in profit has plummeted from 99.89% in early October 2025 to just 56.4% today. This percentage was also over 99% in November 2024 and dropped from 84.6% as recently as January 2026.

Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit

For those unfamiliar, UTXOs in profit indicate the number of coins currently valued higher than their last transacted price, essentially showing how many holders are in profit. The swift decrease indicates widespread financial discomfort in the market.

Many analysts suggest that when losses peak and forced sellers exit the market, a turning point often approaches. While this doesn't ensure a guaranteed bottom, historical patterns point to its significance.

Analysts Suggest Signals of a Possible Rebound

Additionally, an analyst known as Moustache believes the market may have already hit its bottom for both Bitcoin and altcoins. He recently noted that Bitcoin recorded its second-lowest weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) in its history, which he cites as a supporting reason for his viewpoint.

Bitcoin 1W Chart Moustache

Furthermore, trader HK pointed to a trading range between $60,000 and $42,000 as the most likely zone for Bitcoin to find its bottom. This range is seen as an area where seasoned investors might be accumulating positions quietly while others are panicking, supported by historical data.

Disclaimer: This article serves informational purposes and should not be viewed as financial advice. The opinions expressed herein may represent the author's personal views and do not reflect those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct their research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses incurred.