Analyst Foresees Bitcoin Price Crash: Insights and Expectations

Months ago, a well-known crypto analyst predicted a critical timeframe when Bitcoin’s price might experience a steep decline. Initially, this forecast seemed drastic. However, as market movements began to reflect his predictions, the analyst has presented an updated, comprehensive analysis that not only backs up the crash projection but also details what to expect before and after the next significant transition.

Key Takeaways

A crypto analyst previously predicted a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price, which is now aligning with market behavior.
The current yearly cycle shows Bitcoin in a high-risk zone, with a critical pivot anticipated around February 2.
Historical trends indicate a potential price drawdown between 34% and 55% from its all-time high.
Key pivot dates are identified, with significant price levels to monitor for potential support in upcoming months.
Investors should prepare for possible further declines and a multi-stage recovery as the market evolves.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Model Indicates a Structural Reset

In a recent update shared on X, the analyst combines data from yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to estimate both the extent of potential decline and timing for the upcoming shift. On the yearly cycle, Bitcoin is currently in what he describes as an extreme risk zone, anticipating a pivotal moment around February 2. The market structure appears to be left-translated with distributive price action, a pattern associated with weakness typically seen late in a cycle.

He draws parallels with a previous harmonic phase during which Bitcoin fell about 50% from its all-time high before hitting the same pivot window. Following that decline, there was a rebound of roughly 40%, but it did not reach a new all-time high, indicating that the February pivot may offer some relief rather than significant growth. The analyst also points out a broader macro risk period from April to September 2026.

Within the monthly cycle, he pinpoints a key pivot date around December 22. Historical setbacks within similar cycles saw declines of 56%, 77%, and 34%, depending on the context. While the 77% drop coincided with a bear market, the 34% drop occurred within a mid-bull cycle. Recoveries during these periods varied between 140% and 375%, showing that monthly harmonics can experience the most significant price upheaval.

As for the weekly cycle, a shorter-term pivot is expected around November 19. Historical pullbacks in these cases have ranged from 20% to 34%, usually followed by significant upswings of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, offering valuable tactical insights for traders aiming to adjust their strategies within the larger trend.

Updated Downside Projections and Future Price Targets

In addition to affirming his prior crash call, the analyst fine-tunes the downside forecast by aligning insights from all three cycles. When these harmonics synchronize, it increases both volatility and the significance of pivots. While the overall drawdown is estimated to be between 20% and 77%, he refines the likely decline to a range of 34% to 55% from the all-time high. He cautions that deeper bear-market conditions have yet to be confirmed.

The November weekly pivot may arrive too soon for a definitive macro bottom, with upper timeframe pressures likely pushing the actual pivot into January. A short-lived recovery, sometimes referred to as a "dead-cat bounce," may occur in late November before further downturns. Key price levels to watch include approximately $90,000 (a 30% drop) in November, $72,000 (about 43% below the peak) in January, with additional support levels at $45,000 and $28,000 if selling accelerates.

The analyst emphasizes the importance of caution, noting that the last comparable yearly harmonic saw a 40% recovery without exceeding the previous all-time high, and similar limitations may be expected before the risk window of May to September 2026. However, while his four-month-old crash prediction remains accurate, he asserts that Bitcoin’s journey isn't finished—investors should brace for further declines and prepare for a multi-stage recovery that will shape the next macro cycle.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com BTC bears continue to put pressure on price | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com