Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Still Has Room to Fall Before Reversal

A cryptocurrency market analyst has provided an updated technical analysis, explaining why Bitcoin's price has not yet reached a bottom in its cycle. Utilizing a charting method called the Bear Bands, along with the Halving Cycles Theory, the analyst suggests that while a short-term price increase is taking place, the overarching bear market is likely to persist for a significant time with more declines before hitting a definitive price floor.

Key Takeaways

An analyst indicates Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle bottom, based on Bear Bands and Halving Cycles Theory.
Recent price increases do not imply an end to the bear market.
The next anticipated price lows for Bitcoin are around $44,500 and $28,500, projected over the next few months.
A significant price recovery may not begin until late 2026 or early 2027.

Bitcoin

Understanding Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Reached Its Bottom

As per market specialist Crypto Con on X, the recent price uptick that pushed Bitcoin above $71,000, following a significant dip below $64,000, is a routine reaction and does not signify the end of the Bitcoin bear market. The analyst highlighted that market developments are proceeding as anticipated, both in terms of timing and pricing, in accordance with the Halving Cycles Theory. Additionally, the price holding steady at the initial low of the Bear Bands indicator further supports his bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

In a detailed price chart, Crypto Con examines Bitcoin’s extensive price history stretching back to 2011, tracing repetitive sequences of bear markets observed in previous major cycles. Each of these phases adhered to a traditional three-stage pattern, moving through an initial low, a secondary low, and ultimately a final cycle bottom before any sustainable recovery could commence. Based on this recurring pattern, Crypto Con believes the Bitcoin market has not yet reached its lowest point but may be approaching it soon.

Bitcoin price

The Bear Bands framework illustrates Bitcoin’s initial low at approximately $64,000, a level reached earlier this February. The second low for the current cycle is anticipated to be around $44,500, suggesting that the leading cryptocurrency still has substantial downside potential before testing the next major support level. Below this point, Crypto Con predicts BTC’s cycle bottom could be near $28,500, marking the lowest anticipated price before a significant reversal can be regarded. With current prices hovering above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would signify a remarkable decline of more than 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s conviction that the bear market is not yet over.

Projected Timeline for Bitcoin's Bottom

In addition to bearish price targets, the timeline for hitting the bottom outlined in Crypto Con’s analysis presents a challenging scenario for investors and traders seeking a rapid recovery. The analyst has estimated that the second low around $44,500 may not occur for at least another five months from the publication of his post.

This projection places Bitcoin’s next significant price drop in the timeframe of August to October 2026, as indicated in the chart. If this timeline unfolds as suggested, it would extend any expectations of a final bottom well into late 2026.

Should the anticipated cycle bottom of $28,500 materialize, Crypto Con foresees it occurring no sooner than three months following the second low. This suggests a timeframe from November 2026 to January 2027 for Bitcoin to realistically discover its ultimate price floor before beginning to build toward recovery.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC maintains support above $70,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com