Analyst Predicts Continued Struggles for XRP in Q2 – How Low Could It Go?

As we near the conclusion of the first quarter of 2026, a crypto analyst has shared a pessimistic outlook for XRP, cautioning that the altcoin's downward trend may not yet be finished, potentially leading to further declines in the upcoming months.

Key Takeaways

Analyst warns of a possible 60% correction in XRP over the next quarter.
XRP is currently trading between $1.30 and $1.35, maintaining a delicate balance within a critical support range.
The potential for a relief rally exists, possibly leading XRP to between $1.80 and $2.00.
Traders should closely monitor the price actions around the 200-week EMA and crucial resistance levels.

Bitcoin, crypto, solana, XRP

Potential for a 60% Correction in Q2

On Tuesday, XRP remained stagnant, fluctuating between $1.30 and $1.35 for five consecutive days. The cryptocurrency has been trading within two essential levels, $1.21 and $1.55, for nearly two months now.

Market analyst More Crypto Online pointed out that since the early February price drop, there has been minimal significant movement, with XRP struggling to break out of its current range. However, it has maintained support at the lower boundary of this critical range, which they regard as an important support level and decision-making area for the cryptocurrency. The imminent price action could determine the market's future direction, influencing whether a more bullish trend can remain or if a deeper correction is forthcoming.

According to the analyst, the current market structure for XRP suggests a more bearish outlook in the short to mid-term, with indications of a “more complex ABC structure” emerging, unless there's a strong rally initiated.

XRP
XRP could witness an ABC structure in Q2. Source: More Crypto Online on X

In this case, the altcoin might rebound into a significant resistance area between $1.76 and $2.86 during its B wave in the upcoming weeks before the price subsequently retraces for Wave C. This critical resistance zone is crucial to monitor, as there is a possibility of an upward bounce if February's price lows are sustained. The analyst stated, “If it’s a corrective move up, which currently would be the expectation, we may see a slight bounce in Q2, and then possibly in late Q2 or early Q3, we could see that C wave down.”

The expectation is that this correction could place XRP’s bottom between $0.98 and $0.48, indicating a potential pullback of 30% to 60% from the current levels.

Could an Early Q2 Rally Be on the Horizon?

In a similar vein, analyst Chard Nerd shared a comparable viewpoint, suggesting that XRP might surge to a price range of $1.80-$2.00 in the coming months. This expert elaborated on a potential relief rally taking place between April and May, which could signal a significant turning point based on XRP's historical patterns.

Notably, following upward trends in previous cycles, the altcoin has often retraced to test the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) before experiencing a relief rally toward the 20 and 50 EMAs. This pattern has generally been followed by a drop back to bear market lows.

Chard Nerd mentioned that they had anticipated the relief rally to occur earlier; however, the cryptocurrency has been consolidating around its 200-week EMA for several weeks. This indicates that the retest of this indicator might extend longer than in previous cycles, potentially delaying the retests of the 20 and 50 EMAs.

“XRP is currently hovering around the 200-week EMA. We have witnessed major relief rallies in the past, which suggests that we may experience one now, but it will likely be followed by another low later in the year in the $0.90 to $0.70 range. This is what we are trying to achieve before any further growth can take place,” he concluded.

XRP, XRPUSDT
XRP’s performance on the one-week chart. Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView