Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin ATH as IBIT Options Surge 40x

Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin ATH as IBIT Options Surge 40x - Here’s Why

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of recovery, trading at $91,485.80 with a slight gain over the previous 24 hours and a significant increase over the last week. Analyst Max Keiser believes a new all-time high (ATH) is imminent, supported by Nasdaq's recent filing to expand the options limits for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by 40 times. This development suggests a shift in institutional interest and could lead to a bullish trend, although market sentiment remains cautious at present.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is recovering, currently at $91,485.80 after dropping from its ATH of $124,500.
Analyst Max Keiser forecasts a new ATH based on Nasdaq's 40x expansion of IBIT options contracts.
Major institutions are preparing for significant participation in the crypto market, signaled by the rise in options limits.
Despite positive signals, cautious market sentiment remains, with Bitcoin needing to stabilize between $95k and $96.5k for a true rally.

Max Keiser Says New Bitcoin ATH “In Play”

Bitcoin’s Recovery Potential

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the mend after falling below $90,000. Currently, BTC is priced at $91,485.80, showcasing a 0.26% increase in the past 24 hours and a robust 6.17% rise over the last week. However, it still lags significantly behind its recent peak of $124,500. This technical recovery serves as a backdrop for renewed optimism from industry advocates who believe the expansion of crypto derivatives will catalyze a significant price surge.

Insights from Max Keiser on Bitcoin

Max Keiser, a notable Bitcoin analyst, has captured the prevailing positive sentiment, predicting an upcoming all-time high (ATH) for BTC. His forecast is grounded in Nasdaq's recent filing, which aims to increase the options contracts for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). According to Keiser, this crucial development is changing the market landscape.

Keiser elaborated in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), stating that with the derivatives market for the spot Bitcoin ETF expanding nearly 40-fold, the newly introduced “financial plumbing” will allow for greater institutional leverage and liquidity. He believes these dynamics could drive Bitcoin’s price to record levels. He noted, “I said a year ago, the next Bitcoin pullback would come when the market hit size barriers (for market-makers). That problem is now solved with a 40x increase in options contract size.”

Details of Nasdaq’s Filing and Its Implications

Nasdaq’s recent submission to increase the options limit on BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF to 1 million contracts signifies a major shift in institutional expectations for the crypto market. This adjustment implies that the exchange anticipates a demand for the spot Bitcoin ETF that exceeds the current capacity of the derivatives market.

By expanding the derivatives capacity 40-fold, Nasdaq is sending a strong message that large institutions are gearing up to use IBIT not merely with caution, but for considerable hedging, leveraging, and speculative activities. These collective actions represent a shift from cautious participation towards a deeper integration of Bitcoin into institutional trading strategies. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, also commented, “Good catch... new proposal to raise position limits on IBIT options to 1 million contracts. They just raised the limit to 250,000 from 25,000 in July. $IBIT is now the largest Bitcoin options market in the world by open interest.”

Max Keiser's Historical Perspective

Max Keiser’s optimistic view draws from a historical context. He initially articulated his institutional supply-side position in 2017, observing on November 2 that “Wall St traders need inventory. They’re accumulating #Bitcoin now with a $ trillion shopping spree.” His core belief has consistently been that substantial participation from institutions in Bitcoin necessitates a hefty inventory of physical BTC.

Keiser has reiterated this notion over the years, emphasizing that Wall Street traders, market makers, broker/dealers, and hedge funds must stockpile this inventory before higher prices can be supported. Fast-forwarding to today, the enlargement of the IBIT options market equips institutions to allocate capital and manage risk effectively. Keiser considers this development the final technical validation of his long-standing thesis. He asserts that the conditions appear favorable now: with inventory accumulation and improved liquidity for professional market makers, these factors may alleviate supply constraints and set the stage for Bitcoin’s next ATH cycle.

Is Bitcoin Prepared for a Rally?

Although Bitcoin has stabilized above the $90,000 mark, market sentiment exhibits caution. Options traders have lowered their expectations for a “Santa rally,” and the 25 Delta Risk Reversal signals a premium on hedging activities as the year draws to a close. Analysts point out that momentum remains “deeply negative” and highly tactical. For a genuine bullish shift to materialize, Bitcoin needs to stabilize in the range of $95,000 to $96,500.

In conclusion, the market’s trajectory as the year ends will depend less on organic strength and more on the impending decisions from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.