Analyst Predicts Potential Decline in Bitcoin Prices Amid Treasury Concerns

Canadian mining magnate Frank Giustra foresees a potential decline in Bitcoin prices, proposing that investors may soon encounter more favorable buying conditions than the current price of $88,000. Citing risks linked to corporate treasury unwinding, Giustra is cautious about Bitcoin's future market position.

Key Takeaways

Frank Giustra, a Canadian mining tycoon, anticipates that Bitcoin could decrease further in price.
Companies holding Bitcoin as treasury assets may face significant risks, particularly due to potential MSCI index exclusion.
Current estimates suggest Bitcoin corporate treasuries own 4.9% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Grayscale asserts that any unwinding of these treasury firms may not create substantial market turmoil.
BTC trader Cryp Nuevo points to a potential correction level at $74,000, aligning with historical mining costs.

Analyst Predicts Potential Decline in Bitcoin Prices Amid Treasury Concerns

Will BTC Treasuries Unwind in 2026?

As of now, Bitcoin treasuries, spearheaded by Strategy’s substantial holding of 672,497 BTC, represent 4.9% of the entire supply, which is around 1.035 million coins. These public entities are the second-largest Bitcoin holders, just behind exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that control 7% of the total supply.

Concerns about potential unwinding of treasury companies arise due to two primary risk factors. Firstly, there is the risk of being excluded from the MSCI index, which could trigger mandatory redemptions and result in sell-offs. Predictions from Polymarket suggest a 75% chance of this MSCI Index delisting happening before Q1 2026.

The second risk is related to compressed mNAV (market Net Asset Value), which tracks the value of crypto assets against the company's overall assets. Should the mNAV fall below 1, firms would need to either increase debt or liquidate some of their Bitcoin assets for share buybacks, putting added pressure on their valuations. Currently, many Bitcoin treasuries are operating at a discounted mNAV, and a probable MSCI delisting could worsen the situation.

Is the BTC Treasury Risk Overstated?

Despite these concerns, Grayscale believes that unwinding of treasury firms may not significantly impact the market. In their 2026 forecast, the asset management firm explained that Strategy has created a reserve fund designed to prevent the liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings. Grayscale stated, “These vehicles (treasury firms) are unlikely to be a major source of new demand for tokens or a major source of selling pressure in 2026, in our view.”

Market expectations regarding Strategy's potential Bitcoin liquidation are relatively low, remaining below 30% as of the latest updates. Furthermore, there’s already a movement towards mergers among financially troubled treasury firms, like Semler Scientific and Strive.

In light of these factors, noted BTC trader Cryp Nuevo estimates that Bitcoin corrections could stabilize at around $74,000, a level corresponding with mining expenses that tend to halt past severe price declines.

Bitcoin Treasury Source: X

Final Thoughts

The overall sentiment around Bitcoin's treasury risk reflects a cautious stance, with experts divided on the potential impacts on the cryptocurrency's market position moving forward. Whether or not these influences come to pass, it’s clear that investors should remain informed and prepared for possible fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.