Arthur Hayes: Fed’s RMP is ‘QE in Disguise’ with Bitcoin Returning to $124K

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has labeled the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) as “QE in disguise,” suggesting that increased liquidity will lead to a rise in Bitcoin’s price. Hayes, who is also CIO of the Maelstrom Fund, predicts Bitcoin will hover between $80,000 and $100,000 in the near future, before reaching $124,000 again and possibly aiming for $200,000.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes refers to the Fed’s RMP program as “QE in disguise,” anticipating that it will boost Bitcoin’s price.
He forecasts Bitcoin will trade between $80,000 and $100,000 initially before reclaiming $124,000 and aiming for $200,000.
The RMP operates through a mechanism similar to quantitative easing, with implications for government financing and market liquidity.
Bitcoin is expected to see volatility until more market participants recognize the RMP’s true nature, possibly leading to significant price changes by 2026.

Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin reclaiming $124K

In his December 19 essay titled “Love Language,” Hayes asserts that the RMP operates similarly to quantitative easing, primarily through indirect methods. He also announced a strategic portfolio shift from Ethereum into high-quality decentralized finance (DeFi) assets, which he believes will perform better as fiat liquidity increases.

Understanding RMP's Mechanism

The Federal Reserve launched the RMP program during the FOMC meeting on December 10. According to Hayes, the program involves the purchase of short-term Treasury bills from money market funds, which then reinvest those proceeds into longer-term Treasuries or the repo markets. This approach allows for government financing without the political fallout associated with announcing formal quantitative easing.

“Although the RMP purchases are lower in absolute amounts compared to previous QE initiatives ($40 billion monthly), the mechanics of the program result in a similar monetary expansion,” stated Hayes. As the government relies on T-bill financing for deficits exceeding $2 trillion each year, the RMP's impact becomes even more pronounced. He noted that John Williams, President of the New York Fed, has broad authority over the RMP's expansion through vague guidelines on “ample reserves.” This flexibility opens the door for substantial balance sheet growth with little oversight, a concept Hayes humorously referred to as “Money Printer Go F***** Brrrrr.”

Bitcoin Price Predictions through 2026

Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin will experience volatile trading within the $80,000 to $100,000 range from December 2025 through January 2026. This prediction is based on two primary factors: the prevailing belief that RMP is not akin to quantitative easing, and the uncertainty surrounding the continuation of the program past its scheduled end in April 2026.

Once the markets understand that RMP is effectively a form of quantitative easing, Hayes expects a rapid price increase for Bitcoin. He believes it will quickly reclaim the $124,000 mark and aim for $200,000 in early to mid-2026, spurred by institutional fear of missing out (FOMO), inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and growing acknowledgment of the Fed’s role in financing government spending.

March 2026 is projected to be a time of heightened expectations regarding RMP’s inflationary effects on asset prices. However, Hayes predicts a short-term decline in Bitcoin, which he believes will form a local bottom “well above $124,000.” This downturn is expected to be strategic and brief, not indicative of a market peak. In comments made in late November, Hayes revised his long-term Bitcoin target to $500,000 by the end of 2026.