Arthur Hayes Maintains His Bold Bitcoin Price Forecast for Year-End

Arthur Hayes is sticking to his prediction that Bitcoin could soar to between $200,000 and $250,000 by the close of 2025, even after the market crash in October and November.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes projects Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end 2025.
He believes the recent price drop to $80,000 is merely a liquidity-driven reset.
Hayes argues that the ETF market dynamics were misinterpreted by retail investors.
Digital Asset Treasury companies play a key role in Bitcoin's market, but their model has faced challenges.
Upcoming political and economic developments could enhance Bitcoin’s price movement.

During an appearance on the Milk Road Show on November 26, Hayes expressed that the recent dip to $80,000 signifies the bottom of the current market cycle. He also pointed out that global dollar liquidity is beginning to improve. “I’m going to stick with it,” Hayes said in response to whether he still believes in his target of $200,000 to $250,000 with only a few weeks left in the year. “If I’m wrong, it doesn’t matter... I’m long, I’m still happy either way.”

Hayes Sees $80,000 as the Market's Bottom Following Liquidity Shock

Hayes described the decline from Bitcoin’s peak of $125,000 down to $80,000 as a liquidity-driven reset, not the onset of a new bear market. He highlighted that his Bloomberg-based US dollar liquidity index indicated that approximately $1 trillion has been drained from dollar money markets since July. This situation arose from the US Treasury replenishing its accounts and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening.

People often think Bitcoin relies on halving cycles for its price movements.

That’s a misconception.

Bitcoin's trajectory is more influenced by liquidity, governmental policies, and the US business cycle, which has not even begun yet.

2026 is expected to be explosive:
– End of quantitative tightening
– US Midterm elections
– A booming economy and stock market driven by reelection agendas
-… pic.twitter.com/aiyOOlODm1 — Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois)

Hayes noted that Bitcoin remained resilient against the liquidity drain for several months because inflows from ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) issuances disguised the underlying issues. However, when those inflows reversed, he argued, Bitcoin “fell down to where it should have been based on the dollar liquidity situation.”

Misinterpretation of ETF "Institutional Bid" by Retail Traders

Hayes contended that the much-discussed ETF demand was misunderstood by many retail investors. The primary holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF include major firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenue. These firms are not merely long-term believers in Bitcoin; instead, they are basis traders taking advantage of price spreads.

“They’re acquiring the IBIT ETF, pledging it with their broker, and then selling a futures contract… allowing them to earn around 7 to 10% annually from that trade,” he explained. As funding rates decreased in September and October, these traders unwound their positions by selling ETFs and repurchasing futures, causing ETF flows to turn negative. According to Hayes, retail investors misinterpreted these outflows as “institutions dumping Bitcoin,” not realizing that the institutions were just unwinding a funding strategy.

JP Morgan Introduces Bitcoin Ventures into the $318 Trillion Bond Market.

JP Morgan has created a new structured note that gives investors access to Bitcoin through BlackRock’s spot ETF (IBIT).

This is significant because it integrates Bitcoin into the traditional bond and fixed-income markets… pic.twitter.com/HZQLM9YgGG — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)

Hayes also pointed out the importance of Digital Asset Treasury companies, which finance Bitcoin purchases through issuing stock and debt when their market NAV trades at a premium. When those stocks fell to par or discount, he argued, this strategy faltered. DAT companies were unable to generate new securities effectively. Some even became incentivized to sell Bitcoin to repurchase their own shares.

“All we know is that we have essentially bottomed out on the liquidity chart, and the future direction is upward,” he asserted. “That’s why I believe the recent $80,000 dip in Bitcoin is the bottom.” He anticipates the next wave of liquidity will emerge largely from the commercial banking sector, referencing early signs of renewed bank lending and political efforts aimed at a credit-fueled industrial expansion.

Why Bitcoin Remains Around $90,000 for Now

When asked why Bitcoin is still hovering around $90,000 despite an optimistic liquidity outlook, Hayes attributed this to the uncertainty regarding how aggressively the new US administration will initiate credit creation. The market remains cautious about how and when another “$10 trillion” of liquidity will be introduced. Promises about increased bank lending, active industrial policy, and a new chair for the Federal Reserve remain speculative until translated into specific programs and financial flows.

“Once we see concrete actions, markets will adjust their projections for the dollar liquidity situation, and risk assets like Bitcoin will begin to rise more significantly,” Hayes concluded.