Arthur Hayes Sticks to Bold $250K Bitcoin Prediction, Claims $80.6K Was the Bottom

Arthur Hayes maintains his optimistic target of $250,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year, asserting that the recent drop to $80,600 marked the market's lowest point.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of this year.
He argues that the recent market drop to $80,600 represents the lowest price point.
Hayes disputes the idea that Bitcoin ETF inflows indicate genuine institutional buying, instead claiming they are primarily basis trades.
Improvements in liquidity and the end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening could positively impact Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.

Arthur Hayes doubles down on $250K Bitcoin

In a recent interview on the Milk Road podcast, the BitMEX co-founder noted that dollar liquidity has reached its lowest point and is now positioned to boost prices for risk-oriented assets.

Hayes elaborated that Bitcoin recently dipped from $125,000 to $80,000 due to confusion surrounding ETF flows and the U.S. Treasury's decision to replenish its checking account. From July to November, the Treasury siphoned approximately $1 trillion from the markets.

This withdrawal of liquidity coincided with the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, resulting in nearly $1 trillion exiting dollar money markets.

ETF Inflows: The Reality Behind Institutional Demand

Hayes challenged the perception that Bitcoin ETF inflows signify substantial institutional interest. According to Bloomberg data, Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir are among the leading holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

“These organizations are not simply buying Bitcoin,” Hayes stated. Instead, these funds engaged in basis trades, purchasing the IBIT ETF while simultaneously selling CME futures contracts to hedge their positions.

After the funding rate fell sharply post-October 10, these traders reversed their positions, leading them to sell the ETF and repurchase futures. “Retail investors believe that institutions were bullish on Bitcoin during the summer but disdain it come fall,” Hayes explained. “Consequently, many are eager to divest, unaware of the true nature of the flows.”

Positive Trends in Liquidity as Treasury Refilling Progresses

The Treasury General Account is now approximately $900 billion, close to its $850 billion target, which is a positive development. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has concluded its quantitative tightening.

“The balance sheet will be maintained at its current size,” Hayes asserted. “We have essentially reached a liquidity bottom, and the future outlook is one of growth.”

He anticipates that bank lending, rather than Federal Reserve initiatives, will be the primary driver of credit creation in 2026. JP Morgan has indicated a potential $1.5 trillion in lending to the industrial sector.

“Once we begin to see tangible developments, market participants will start to reassess the liquidity landscape for the dollar," Hayes remarked. He remains confident that Bitcoin will reach the remarkable target of $250,000 by December 31.