Arthur Hayes Sticks to His $250K Bitcoin Prediction by Year's End

Summary: Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, confidently maintains his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year. He cites recent trends in liquidity and market conditions that support this bullish outlook.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will surge to $250,000, reflecting a 170% increase.
He believes Bitcoin has hit its bottom at $80,600, currently bouncing back to around $92,485.
The end of quantitative tightening and improved liquidity in the market are expected to support this price rise.
Hayes remains optimistic about his prediction, regardless of potential inaccuracies.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin's Recent Rally

With just over a month left in the year, Arthur Hayes is unwavering in his belief that Bitcoin is on track for a significant rally to reach a new all-time high of $250,000. During his recent appearance on the Milk Road Show, he reiterated his stance, stating, “I’m going to stick with it,” as he maintains that Bitcoin will either achieve this ambitious goal or not.

Support for Bitcoin's Recovery

Supporting his optimistic view, Hayes believes that Bitcoin has found its bottom. He previously identified the price drop to $80,600 last week as the lowest point for BTC, and this forecast seems to align with current market trends. In fact, Bitcoin has since rallied almost 12% from that bottom, currently trading at about $92,485.

Hayes notes that Bitcoin is benefitting from the underlying US dollar liquidity, which he feels has also reached its low point. He referred to the significant market correction on October 10, which resulted in the loss of billions from the crypto market, as a necessary reset.

Interestingly, Hayes pointed out that the inflows into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) resemble a "basis trade" strategy. Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs are investing in the Bitcoin ETF, which they use as a collateral to open short positions on the CME against the physical asset.

As funding rates decrease, these institutions are likely to unwind their contracts by selling the ETFs to purchase back futures contracts at a profit. Hayes believes this leveraged institutional strategy has now run its course.

“We are bottom here and can go higher,” he concluded.

Factors Driving Bitcoin to $250K

Moreover, Hayes anticipates that the combination of stabilized US dollar liquidity and the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) will catalyze the next upward movement in Bitcoin's price. He highlights that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, indicating that the era of reducing the money supply is nearing its end.

According to data from Polymarket, there’s an 87% chance of further interest rate cuts by December 10. Analysts expect that QT might conclude as early as December 1.

Hayes is confident that these developments will propel Bitcoin past its current all-time high of $126,220 and potentially reach $250,000 by year’s end. He acknowledges that he could be incorrect in his forecast but expresses that this uncertainty does not affect his bullish outlook. “I’m long, right? I’m still happy either way,” he remarked.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses incurred.