Assessing Bitcoin's Performance in Light of Recent Tech Stock Trends

Bitcoin is currently underperforming compared to tech stocks and the overall U.S. equity market. Recent analyses suggest that this trend is likely to continue, especially with upcoming economic data that could impact market volatility.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has lagged behind tech stocks, with the Nasdaq gaining 17% while Bitcoin lost approximately 15% over the past six months.
BTC's price recently dropped from $94,000 to below $90,000, indicating a disconnect from tech stock performance.
Upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Japan's rate decision are critical events that may influence Bitcoin's price.
A significant price level of $83,000 is crucial for support and may set the stage for a potential rebound.

Bitcoin underperforms Nasdaq as macro risks weigh on crypto: What's next?

Bitcoin's Current Market Position

Bitcoin continues to fall short compared to tech stocks and the broader U.S. equity market. Despite the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq: IXIC) experiencing a decline of 1.7% after a dovish Fed rate cut, Bitcoin's drop was steeper at 2.4%. This trend has highlighted that Bitcoin has not been able to fulfill its role as a 'higher beta tech stock' in the second half of 2025.

In the last six months, while tech stocks represented by the Nasdaq Composite enjoyed a 17% gain, Bitcoin [BTC] has decreased by about 15%. In simpler terms, this means that investing in Nasdaq stocks would have proven more beneficial than investing in BTC this year.

Bitcoin tech stocks
Source: BTC vs. tech stocks (TradingView)

Last week, Bitcoin’s price deviated from its historical correlation with the Nasdaq, falling from $94,000 to below $90,000. This further emphasizes Bitcoin's ongoing struggle amidst macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly as the market awaits the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate decision.

Future Outlook for Bitcoin

Looking ahead, key U.S. inflation figures (Consumer Price Index, CPI) are due next Thursday (December 18), followed by the BoJ's rate decision on Friday (December 19). Although the latter is anticipated to attract significant attention and may contribute to current market caution, founders of Glassnode have downplayed its potential impact. They remarked, "The BoJ rate hike trade is the most overcrowded trade today. A 25 basis point hike is already expected. The main downside risk would be a hawkish forward guidance."

Historically, BoJ rate hikes have been linked to BTC price drops of 20%-30%, and a repeat could push Bitcoin lower. According to the Glassnode founders, Bitcoin is still in a 'bottoming phase,' and the price range of $85,500 to $87,000 could be revisited this week due to intense market activity ahead.

Analyzing the $83K Support Level

From an on-chain perspective, the $83,000 level is significant as it also represents the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts suggest that maintaining this support could pave the way for a rebound in Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin ETF average cost basis
Source: Glassnode

Despite Bitcoin's recent underperformance, Glassnode founders have indicated that it has the potential to rise if "small-cap equities maintain their current range." Additionally, the Dubai-based Derivatives Trading Desk of Laser Digital expressed optimism for the crypto market in 2026, noting a 'heavy wall' at the $94,000 mark for Bitcoin.

They added, "These (CPI & labor data) should clear the runway for investors to start rebuilding long positions into 2026. The arrival of a new Fed chairman and forthcoming liquidity regulations could set a more favorable stage for risk assets."

Concluding Thoughts

In conclusion, although Bitcoin faces challenges in its current performance relative to tech stocks, upcoming economic indicators and market dynamics could impact its trajectory moving forward. Investors should keep a close eye on these developments as they could provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s potential growth in 2026.