Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Bottom and Sets Ambitious Target for Strategy Stock

Bernstein has analyzed the current Bitcoin market and declared that it has reached a bottom, setting an optimistic $450 target for Strategy stock, which represents a potential upside of 226% from its recent closing price of $138.20. This analysis comes from analyst Gautam Chhugani, emphasizing that institutional research rather than retail sentiment shapes this outlook.

Key Takeaways

Bernstein identifies a Bitcoin bottom, suggesting solid support from institutional investments.
A $450 price target for Strategy stock indicates a potential gain of 226% from its current price.
Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen an influx of net inflows, showcasing renewed interest and stability in the market.
The financial health of Strategy, with substantial Bitcoin holdings and cash reserves, supports this bullish outlook.

Bernstein Bitcoin analysis predicts a bottom with a $450 target on Strategy stock, suggesting significant upside potential.

Bernstein’s Bitcoin Bottom Analysis: What the Data Reveals

Bernstein's analyst Gautam Chhugani notes that Bitcoin reached its highest price of $126,210 on October 6, 2025. However, a subsequent flash crash on October 10, driven by leveraged liquidations, initiated a corrective phase further affected by geopolitical tensions, notably the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Despite these events, Bitcoin has maintained a floor around $71,000.

Chhugani interprets this 44% decline as a sign of maturity in the market rather than a breakdown, indicating that institutional demand was strong enough to mitigate selling pressure that might have historically resulted in 70–80% drops.

The evidence supports this narrative: Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.2 billion in net inflows over four weeks, reversing earlier outflows and yielding a positive net year-to-date figure of $364 million against a $90 billion asset base. Currently, ETFs hold 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, reflecting structural support rather than mere speculative interest.

Bernstein projects a year-end Bitcoin target of $150,000, contingent on ongoing institutional purchases amid broader geopolitical challenges. This call is rooted in capital flow dynamics rather than mere price chart patterns.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings: Analyzing the Path to 226% Upside

Strategy currently holds 762,099 BTC, with the most recent acquisition involving 1,031 BTC valued at roughly $51.43 billion.

Bitcoin Assets

According to Bernstein, Strategy's total assets in Bitcoin and cash amount to $56 billion, contrasted with $18 billion in total debt. Notably, cash reserves cover annual dividends and interest for approximately 25 months, while the Bitcoin holdings could sustain financing costs for about 50 years.

The leverage mechanism for Strategy is straightforward: shares in the company amplify Bitcoin’s price movements, as each share corresponds to a claim on a growing BTC treasury as the company raises capital and acquires more Bitcoin.

Bernstein’s target of $450 for Strategy suggests a recovery pathway for Bitcoin toward the $150,000 threshold, while also factoring in the value of the company's capital-raising capacity. This includes a recent $42 billion fundraising split between Class A common stock and perpetual preferred shares, with $6.24 billion still available through an ATM program.

The STRC preferred shares, introduced in July 2025, offer an 11.5% annual dividend, distributed monthly. The average daily trading volume of STRC has reached $220 million, reflecting a remarkable 65% increase over three months, making it the most liquid preferred share in its class. Despite a decline of 57% over the past six months and 59% over the year, primarily due to dilution concerns following equity raises, the stock has rebounded by 10.9% over the past month. Bernstein believes that the discounts associated with dilution are already incorporated into the current price.

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This analysis points to a potential turning point in the market with significant institutional support indicating renewed confidence in Bitcoin and Strategy’s future performance.