Bitcoin Aiming for $98K: Analyzing the Debate on Liquidity and Cycle Peaks

Bitcoin (BTC) is not out of the race yet. While projections suggest a potential cycle peak could occur by early 2026, the current liquidity conditions seem favorable. As risk is shifting rather than exiting the market, many wonder what lies ahead for Bitcoin.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's cycle may peak in early 2026, but liquidity conditions remain strong.
Current Global Liquidity Index levels are at a high for this cycle.
Short-term holders (STHs) are in profit, while mid-term holders face challenges.
Bitcoin is showing resilience around the $95,000 mark, setting up for potential upward movement.

bitcoin

Liquidity Trends Cast Doubt on Early Cycle Peak

Many analysts believe that Bitcoin's price may peak around early 2026; however, these predictions are largely based on historical trends. At this point, the scenario appears different, as there are no clear indications that global liquidity will decrease soon.

bitcoin

Source: X

Liquidity conditions continue to be supportive, which has allowed Bitcoin and other risk assets to maintain solid performances. Notably, the Global Liquidity Index has hit a new high in this cycle, indicating that money supply is still expanding. Markets do not strictly adhere to historical patterns, and Bitcoin has often mirrored shifts in liquidity. Therefore, the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting higher prices seems more promising than reaching a peak.

Current Price Activity for Bitcoin

As Bitcoin navigates this phase of its market cycle, it's essential to observe its performance. An analysis of the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands shows that risk is being redistributed. Short-term holders (STHs) are currently in a positive position, with realized prices below the spot price around $95,500. This indicates that these recent buyers are not facing selling pressure, which mitigates fear within the market.

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Source: CryptoQuant

In contrast, mid-term holders are under more stress, with both 3-6 month and 6-12 month cohorts experiencing losses. However, it seems these holders are choosing to absorb the losses with a degree of patience.

Bitcoin's Price Positioning

Bitcoin's price is currently finding resistance and support levels. As of the latest updates, BTC is holding strong around $95,000, recovering well from the $91,000-$92,000 demand zone, which is supported by significant trading volume. This range now acts as a critical cushion against downward price movements.

Source: TradingView

On the upper side, immediate resistance is observed at $97,000-$98,000, where recent attempts to push higher have encountered obstacles. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, although momentum has slightly decreased.

Conclusion

Bitcoin appears to be consolidating in this crucial stage. If it can hold steady above the $95,000 mark, there may be potential for a significant upward movement in the near future.