Bitcoin Aims for $100K Amid Market Caution – Here’s Why It Makes Sense!

As we approach the end of January, we’re witnessing an increase in market volatility. Two significant events are on the horizon: the Supreme Court's tariff ruling and the U.S. employment data. These events could lead to a week of turbulence for risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC).

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's 30-day Open Interest (OI) has hit its lowest point since 2022, indicating a more controlled market.
Unlike last quarter's blind optimism, current investor sentiment appears cautious with a mere 13% chance of an interest rate cut in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Although BTC hasn’t attracted FOMO (fear of missing out) so far in 2026, it continues to hold steady above the $85k level, suggesting strong underlying support that could pave the way for a move toward $100k.

Bitcoin

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin eyes $100K amid market caution - Here’s why it makes sense!

Cautious Optimism for Bitcoin’s Next Move

The main takeaway from the current market situation is that we are not seeing "blind optimism." Last quarter, Bitcoin's OI surged to $94 billion, indicating an overheated market. In contrast, the current OI is more stable, reflecting a more nuanced perspective among investors. The market is exhibiting caution, which is a significant shift from the previous period.

Considering the heavy macroeconomic events ahead, this cautious sentiment may help avoid another market crash. For Bitcoin, this atmosphere could foster a more stable climb toward the six-figure mark.

Potential for a Bitcoin Rally Despite Challenges

As Bitcoin’s momentum in early 2026 continues, the fear of missing out hasn’t ignited yet. On the institutional front, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have faced $400 million in outflows recently. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) was showing negative sentiment at the time of writing, indicating muted demand from U.S. investors.

The labor market is weakening, with recent data showing a decline of 885,000 job openings over the past year. This has lowered the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers to 0.91.

job market

Source: Kobeissi Letter

Given this context, the market's 13% probability of a rate cut might be overly cautious. With rising unemployment, it seems that a rate reduction might be more likely than currently anticipated.

This is where Bitcoin's cooling metrics become significant. Without rampant optimism, the present market positioning could actually favor Bitcoin, creating a clearer route for a sustainable rally.

Currently, BTC is holding steady above the $85k level, even in light of diminished institutional interest. This indicates a strong foundation for future growth. If this trend persists, targeting the $100k milestone by early February seems plausible.

Conclusion

In summary, as market dynamics evolve, Bitcoin appears poised for a potential rally. With stable OI and a cautionary market sentiment, investors may find themselves in a better position for growth in the coming weeks.