Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Structure Indicates Crypto Winter Ahead

Bitcoin

As the crypto market has witnessed a cautious price recovery over the past three weeks, the total market capitalization has climbed back to $3.07 trillion. During this time, Bitcoin saw an increase of 11% from its local low of $80,700, while Ethereum outperformed with an 18% rise during the same timeframe. Yet, market analyst PelinayPA suggests that the bear market may have started, indicating caution based on specific technical indicators.

Key Insights

The crypto market cap has rebounded to $3.07 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing recent price increases.
Analyst PelinayPA believes that the bear market is underway, supported by certain technical signals.
Bitcoin's trading behavior indicates strong seller dominance, with moving averages pointing downward.
Ethereum demonstrates slightly better resilience but lacks sufficient momentum for a trend reversal.
Predictions for Bitcoin suggest a potential bottom near $50,000, hinting at a possible 44.4% decline from current prices.

Technical Indicators Show Bear Market Sentiment for BTC & ETH

Speculation surrounding a bear market has intensified during the fourth quarter of 2025, as the crypto sector faced significant price corrections, with Bitcoin retracing approximately 36.5%. While the market has recently experienced some mild upward movement, many analysts believe that bearish trends have taken hold, limiting the prospects for a complete market turnaround.

In reviewing Bitcoin's chart, PelinayPA indicates that the price is currently trading below several key moving averages: the short (7, 14), medium (30, 50), and long-term (100). This alignment suggests that sellers dominate the market. More troubling is the observation that these averages are trending downward, implying that the recent price corrections may not be just a temporary phase.

Bitcoin Source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, the analyst points out that these moving averages are operating as resistance—characteristic behavior of a bear market that triggers a selling wave upon contact with the price. Sellers are acting decisively, as indicated by higher volume in bearish candles, while buyers appear reluctant, resulting in lower volume during bullish candles. Consequently, PelinayPA argues that Bitcoin isn't poised for a bullish reversal but is instead fluctuating within an overarching bear market.

In a similar vein, Ethereum's market analysis reveals that its price is also trading below essential moving averages. However, short-term moving averages (7, 14) are showing signs of upward movement. The rebounds from low points are stable and more robust, with candles exhibiting shorter wicks—suggesting lesser selling pressure and a visible interest from buyers.

Despite Ethereum showing stronger resilience compared to Bitcoin, it still lacks enough bullish momentum for a trend reversal, as longer-term moving averages remain in a downward trajectory amid low buying volume.

Current Status of Bitcoin Prices

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,155, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.22% over the last 24 hours. Daily trading volume has fallen by 20.34%, totaling $64.22 billion.

PelinayPA concludes that the bullish phase for Bitcoin has ended, and a significant price correction is necessary before investors witness another sharp increase or return to all-time highs. The analyst forecasts that Bitcoin could hit a low around $50,000 during this ongoing bear market, projecting a possible decline of 44.4% from today’s market values.

Bitcoin BTC trading at $90,148 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com