Bitcoin and XRP Price Gains Could Depend on Oil Prices, Expert Warns

Market expert Sam Daodu warns that for Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP to see significant price rallies, oil prices need to dip further, falling towards the $85–$80 range. Currently, Brent crude has fallen nearly 12% to around $94. Daodu emphasizes that the relationship between energy prices and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is crucial for guiding the crypto market.

Key Takeaways

Expert Sam Daodu states Bitcoin and XRP price rallies depend on oil prices dropping towards $80–$85.
Current oil market dynamics are linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and have significant implications for cryptocurrency prices.
Bitcoin and XRP have retraced from recent highs due to inflation concerns and the Fed's stance on interest rates.
Despite challenges, there are positive technical indicators for both cryptocurrencies.
Continued high oil prices could hinder sustainable gains for Bitcoin and XRP, while reducing inflation pressures could foster renewed interest in risk assets.

XRP

Understanding the Current Market Trends for Bitcoin and XRP

Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above the significant $70,000 mark, while XRP is consolidating close to $1.44. Both cryptocurrencies have seen minor declines from last week's highs, with Bitcoin down about 4% and XRP off approximately 5% over the week due to hitting resistance levels.

Daodu connects these price pullbacks to macroeconomic factors that have driven oil prices above $100 due to escalating tensions since late February when the Strait of Hormuz closures began. High oil prices contribute to inflationary pressures and prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from implementing looser monetary policies.

The Fed's statement on March 19 has pushed back expectations for any potential rate cuts. When the likelihood of lower rates diminishes, investment shifts away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, affecting their prices.

Moreover, Daodu points out that cryptocurrency markets have shown increased sensitivity to geopolitical events. Because digital asset markets operate 24/7, they respond to initial sentiments quickly, often before traditional markets open. This constant liquidity can result in more volatile price movements for Bitcoin and XRP following impactful news, particularly over weekends or during off-hours when trading volumes are lower.

Potential for Recovery in Bitcoin and XRP Prices

Despite facing challenges, Daodu highlights promising technical trends in the market. Bitcoin has demonstrated a pattern of higher lows during sell-offs, indicating that buyers are stepping in at lower prices since late February. In contrast, XRP has been consistent in maintaining a holding range of approximately $1.35–$1.45 during recent price fluctuations, demonstrating resilience even amid unsuccessful rallies.

Daodu affirms that oil prices are the main variable that could change the trend of temporary crypto rallies. If Brent crude prices fall to the $80–$85 range due to signs of a ceasefire or diplomatic progress in the Middle East, this could alleviate inflationary pressures and allow the Fed to consider rate cuts again. The expectation of easier monetary policy would likely encourage investment back into cryptocurrency markets, providing the necessary momentum for Bitcoin and XRP.

On the other hand, if oil prices remain above $100, any positive events or catalysts for Bitcoin or XRP will likely be overshadowed by ongoing inflation and interest rate concerns that have shaped the market since February.

Daodu also reminds investors that several bullish factors that existed prior to the conflict still persist. These include the SEC’s inclination to classify Bitcoin as a commodity, the inflow of investments into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and advancements related to the CLARITY Act. While these elements remain in play, they may be on hold until broader macroeconomic conditions—mainly driven by a decrease in oil prices—allow risk assets to recover.

XRP The daily chart illustrates XRP’s recovery above $1.4 as of Monday. Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com