Bitcoin Bear Market: Insights from CryptoQuant Analyst

Bitcoin is currently in the early phases of a bear market, according to various on-chain and market indicators, a trend that's expected to persist until 2026. The price of Bitcoin is likely to decline further instead of reaching new heights. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, points to weakening demand as a significant factor behind this forecast.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is believed to have entered a bear market as early as November 2025.
Multiple on-chain metrics validate the bearish trend in the market.
Demand for Bitcoin has decreased, particularly among exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The risk of forced selling from institutional investors could exacerbate current price declines.
The future of Bitcoin’s price hinges on the recovery of demand.

Understanding the Current Bear Market

Bitcoin's current status has many in the investment community debating the onset of a larger cryptocurrency bear market. Nonetheless, Julio Moreno claims that Bitcoin has already transitioned into one as far back as November 2025. “Essentially, every relevant on-chain and market indicator confirms that we are at the early stages of a bear market,” Moreno mentioned in a BeInCrypto podcast. He forecasts a continued decline in Bitcoin prices in the months ahead. “The primary question is not whether prices will continue to fall, but how long this situation will last or how low the prices will go. I certainly don't expect new all-time highs from here,” he added.

Moreno’s pessimistic view is grounded not only in price movements but also in fundamental indicators that suggest ongoing weakness in the market.

Declining Bitcoin Demand

Over recent months, Bitcoin has been facing a noticeable decline in demand. CryptoQuant has been actively tracking the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for more clarity on this situation. In the period between 2024 and 2025, several strong factors contributed to Bitcoin's demand. The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs initially led to significant institutional inflows and a notable increase in demand. Additionally, regulatory support during President Donald Trump's administration fostered a healthier risk appetite among investors.

However, this demand has recently begun to fade. “Since at least early November, ETFs have become net sellers of Bitcoin,” Moreno noted, explaining that there was a period of aggressive buying that has now given way to selling.

Risk of Forced Selling

Last year, the cryptocurrency landscape saw a notable increase in companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset, with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) setting a trend followed by firms like MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital, and MARA Holdings. Presently, institutional demand for Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point in eight months.

There is a potential concern emerging. “Aside from MicroStrategy, nearly all the treasury companies holding Bitcoin have ceased purchasing. If prices keep declining, we might see some companies compelled to sell their holdings,” Moreno explained. This potential forced selling could further amplify market volatility.

Moreno believes that Bitcoin could reach a low around $56,000 if current trends persist. Despite these risks, he emphasizes that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin will ultimately rely on the recovery of demand. “When demand stops contracting and begins to grow again, that's when we can expect a change in market dynamics,” he remarked. Until that reversal is observed on-chain, a cautious approach to the market is advisable.