Bitcoin Breaks Five-Month Losing Streak: Are We Seeing a Real Recovery or Just April Fool's Hype?

As of now, there are around 650,000 Bitcoin concentrated in the $70,000–$72,000 price range. These coins were acquired by investors who are now hoping just to break even. This supply overhang presents a significant barrier that Bitcoin needs to overcome if its recovery in March is going to prove meaningful.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin concluded March with a 2% increase after five months of losses.
The current trading price is approximately $68,250, with traders watching for sustained momentum.
Significant resistance levels exist around $70,000–$72,000, where many investors are waiting to recover losses.
Historically, when Bitcoin faced a similar losing streak in 2018, it saw substantial gains in the following months.
The outcome of April could diverge from March trends, as historical data shows mixed results.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has successfully ended its five-month streak of losses with a 2% gain in March, closing around $68,250. Analysts are considering historical patterns as they ponder whether this marks a genuine recovery. However, significant resistance lies in the $70,000–$72,000 range, where many investors are underwater.

A Streak Unseen Since 2018

Bitcoin managed to close March up by 2%, breaking its sequence of five consecutive losing months. This marks the longest such stretch of red monthly candles since 2018, with confirmations of the end of the losing streak from CoinGlass. As April begins, Bitcoin is trading around $68,250, and market participants are eager to see if the upward momentum continues or fades away.

The last time Bitcoin experienced six straight months of losses was during the end of 2018 and early 2019, followed by a remarkable rebound where gains topped 300% over the next five months.

THIS IS A MASSIVE DOSE OF HOPIUM. Bitcoin just printed its first green monthly candle after five consecutive red months. Let’s hope this isn’t an April Fool’s joke. — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 1, 2026

Bitcoin Price Chart

Some experts suggest that this historical episode may serve as a guide for upcoming trends. Analyst Ash Crypto labeled the March close as “a massive dose of hopium” on X, hinting at a possible change in momentum that could indicate the start of a sustained recovery.

Trader Satoshi Flipper also referenced the past, noting that after Bitcoin dropped for six consecutive months, it soared for the following five. This kind of analysis, while based on a singular historical pattern, raises the stakes for potential upcoming price movements.

Last time BTC dumped six months straight, it pumped for the next five months. What will our next five months look like after BTC just finished dumping for five months? — Satoshi Flipper (@SatoshiFlipper) April 1, 2026

The $70,000 Zone: A Key Test for Bitcoin

The price range between $70,000 and $72,000 holds significance beyond being just a round number. It coincides with the 50-day simple moving average, the 50-day exponential moving average, and the cost basis for a substantial number of investors. According to Glassnode data, approximately 650,000 BTC were acquired at this price level. This means many holders are currently at a loss and may sell once they regain their investment.

BTCUSD Trading Chart

Successfully passing through this resistance zone could lead Bitcoin to the $76,000 level, and possibly even $80,000 thereafter. Trader Sheldon Diedericks suggested on X that Bitcoin could aim for $83,000 on the monthly chart, a price point that previously served as support in April 2025 and is in proximity to the 200-day exponential moving average.

However, if the upward movement falters, other critical support levels come into play. The 200-week exponential moving average stands around $68,300, just slightly below Bitcoin's current trading value. Should the price slip past this, the 200-week simple moving average at $59,400 and the realized price around $54,000 are closely monitored as potential bear market floors.

The unpredictability of April should also be noted. Historical data from 2013 reveals that Bitcoin has closed April positively in eight out of 13 years, averaging near 12% returns. However, in nine out of those years, the trend for April diverged from that of March. Notably, in three of the four years between 2021 and 2024, Bitcoin declined in April following a green March close.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView