Bitcoin Breaks Key Support Levels Amid Ongoing Downtrend

Summary:
Bitcoin has recently fallen below three essential price markers: the halving Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP), the all-time high (ATH) AVWAP, and the 50-week simple moving average (SMA50), indicating a bearish market trend.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price has dropped to $74,890, almost 15% lower for the year.
The halving AVWAP, ATH AVWAP, and SMA50 have shifted from being support levels to resistance levels.
Historical data shows Bitcoin previously peaked at $126,000 in October 2025.
Other analysts predict a potential further decline in Bitcoin's value.

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Current Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin has shown significant weakness over the past few days, with its price declining to $74,890. This figure represents nearly a 15% decrease for the year, following a 6.3% drop recorded earlier this month. The asset's price has now fallen below several major support levels, such as the AVWAP connected to the Fourth Halving, the ATH AVWAP, and the weekly SMA50, revealing a growing bearish trend.

Understanding Key Price Markers

This analysis stems from insights by a pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst known as Onchain. He highlighted how the AVWAP linked to the Fourth Halving, the AVWAP associated with the latest all-time high, and the 50-week SMA have recently transformed from being support levels into resistance points. According to Onchain, these metrics collectively measure Bitcoin’s trends since mid-2024.

From May to August 2024, Bitcoin's price fluctuated within certain range limits of the Fourth Halving AVWAP while maintaining support above the SMA50, which had a positive slope. During this timeframe, Bitcoin reached price highs of $71,958 and $70,000, remaining above a significant structural support level of $57,000.

Bitcoin 1W Chart Onchain

Bitcoin's Surge and Market Resistance

In September 2024, Bitcoin surged from about $54,000 to $108,000 by December 2024. During this robust price increase, the AVWAP bands expanded significantly. Onchain noted that the upper boundary of the Fourth Halving AVWAP consistently marked key market tops. Bitcoin touched around $109,000 in January 2025, $112,000 in May 2025, $124,000 in August 2025, and ultimately reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

Each of these peaks aligned with the AVWAP's upper boundary, symbolizing market tops and resistance levels. Throughout this phase, the Fourth Halving AVWAP and the SMA50 acted as support zones during price pullbacks.

Price Drop Below Key Levels

In January 2025, after Bitcoin's drop from $109,000, buyers supported the AVWAP and SMA50 region even as the price fell to $74,000 by April. However, following the October all-time high at $126,000, the market saw further declines. By mid-November 2025, Bitcoin closed its weekly figure at $94,000, marking its first drop below the SMA50.

The decline persisted into late November and December 2025, as Bitcoin fell into a range between $84,000 and $80,000, again relying on the Fourth Halving AVWAP as temporary support. A brief recovery occurred, but the price zone between $97,000 and $100,000 turned into resistance. Additionally, Bitcoin formed a lower high at $93,000, indicating weakening upward momentum. This resistance area included various technical levels such as UTXO Age Bands for holders aged six to twelve months, the SMA50, and the AVWAP associated with the recent all-time high.

Currently, Bitcoin trades at $74,890, having closed below the Fourth Halving AVWAP at $85,257, below the SMA50 at $100,415 (which is trending downward), and under the ATH AVWAP at $97,616. This behavior indicates that sellers have gained control over the market.

Broader Market Concerns

Additionally, several analysts have expressed concerns over broader weaknesses in the Bitcoin market. Technical analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin recently recorded a bearish monthly close beneath the base of a long-term Macro Triangle pattern. He suggests that the market is teetering on the brink of a significant structural breakdown that could lead to a bearish cycle.

Bitcoin 1M Chart Rekt Capital

Another analyst, Aralaz, warned that Bitcoin might be gearing up for a sharp decline towards the $32,000 range. He cited previous peak-and-crash cycles, including the 2017 peak near $19,000 that suffered an 84.1% decline in 2018, the 2021 peak at $69,000 amidst a 77.4% drop in 2022, and the possibility of a 72.2% downturn from the 2025 peak of $126,000 into 2026.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct extensive research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.