Bitcoin Bulls Face Critical Challenge at $98K–$100K: Insights from Trader Mayne

Bitcoin is nearing a pivotal resistance zone between $98,000 and $100,000. Trader Mayne, a well-known crypto analyst, believes this week is crucial for determining whether Bitcoin bulls can regain momentum or if the rally will falter. The upcoming price action could significantly impact Bitcoin's market structure and sentiment moving forward.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is approaching a crucial resistance level of $98K–$100K.
Trader Mayne identifies this as a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin.
A break above this level could signal a shift in market sentiment, possibly sparking a rally.
Mayne suggests that there’s a 70–80% chance Bitcoin will form a lower high unless it breaks through $98K.
Caution is advised, as failure to clear this resistance may lead to a downturn.

Bitcoin bulls face make-or-break test at $98k–$100k: Trader Mayne - 1

Bitcoin's Current Market Situation

Bitcoin is currently testing one of its most important resistance zones this cycle. According to Trader Mayne, the next few days will be vital for Bitcoin bulls as they attempt to regain momentum. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to its yearly opening level after a series of successful trades, following a cycle low around $80,000. The recent rise has broken a significant downtrend, but Mayne warns that the real challenge lies ahead at the former support level of approximately $98,000.

Breaking through this zone would represent a critical shift in Bitcoin's price action, marking the first notable structural change since its all-time high of around $125,000. As of now, Bitcoin's price movement appears relatively encouraging with higher lows being formed, but there is still no new high established on the four-hour chart. Mayne emphasizes the necessity of follow-through: “I need a higher high here.”

Is a Lower High Looming Before a Bear Market?

Mayne expressed a cautious outlook, assigning a 70%–80% probability to Bitcoin forming a lower high instead of reaching a new all-time high. However, if the bulls manage to reclaim the $98K level and break the existing downtrend, this likelihood drops to 50%–60%. This key level also confirms a significant weekly cycle low which, according to Mayne, could set the stage for the last rally before a predicted bear market in 2026.

Key factors influencing this cycle include the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, renewed hopes for liquidity, and shifts in market sentiment, like Vanguard facilitating IBIT purchases.

Bitcoin bulls face make-or-break test at $98k–$100k: Trader Mayne - 2
Source: CoinGecko

For the bulls, an ideal scenario would be a direct breakout. Mayne stated, “I want to see price just go. I don’t want people to have time to get in.” Conversely, if the price consolidates around the yearly opening level, this could signal a “bear flag,” increasing the chances that a lower high has already occurred.

Mayne highlighted two essential trendlines to watch: a breakout above the downtrend line would indicate bullish continuation, while a breakdown of the short-term rising trendline would suggest the bullish structure is failing.

While there is some optimism, Mayne urges caution in this environment. His approach involves selling spot positions into strength, particularly at or near $100K, ahead of a potential larger cyclical pullback that could see Bitcoin revisit the $50K–$60K range. "Any sign of weakness at the yearly open, 98K, 100K, 105–110K—derisk, hedge, ready to get the **out,” he advised.

If Bitcoin fails to break through this resistance, Mayne anticipates potential short-side opportunities: “A bear market is just the inverse of a bull market…just invert the chart.”

Dollar Dynamics Are Favorable—for Now

Mayne also noted that current macroeconomic signals are supportive, highlighting a retreat in USD dominance and the U.S. dollar index's rejection of a crucial resistance level. “We want to see this make one more low. That’s the best case for stocks, for crypto, for everything."

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, and a decisive movement beyond the $98K–$100K range could transform the market structure, sentiment, and overarching cycle. However, if it fails to succeed at this level, it may confirm that the market peak has already been reached. As Mayne succinctly put it: “The bulls still have work to do. The bears are still in control.”