Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Hits Lowest Level Since February – Will BTC Drop Below $80,000?

Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has consistently closed its monthly candles above the crucial threshold of $80,000, establishing this level as significant and robust support.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has maintained a monthly close above $80,000 in 2025, serving as critical support.
The Coinbase Premium Index has hit its lowest since February, indicating potential selling pressure from US investors.
Long-term holders are starting to accumulate again, suggesting potential for a bullish recovery.
Pitfalls from ETF outflows and negative market signals could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months.

Nonetheless, signals from the Coinbase Premium Index suggest that this support may be under threat. Analysts maintain optimism regarding Bitcoin's prospects, even in the event of a breach below this critical level.

Understanding the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index

The Coinbase Premium Index gauges the price discrepancy of Bitcoin between Coinbase (in the US) and Binance (internationally). This index typically reflects the buying demand from institutional investors within the United States.

A negative value in the index indicates increased selling pressure from US investors, which plays a substantial role in driving down BTC prices.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Source: CryptoQuant

As reported by CryptoQuant on December 30, the index recorded a value of -0.14, marking its lowest point since February. In December, the index remained negative for 16 consecutive days, during which Bitcoin was unable to close a weekly candle above $90,000.

Due to these circumstances, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may not yet have reached its lowest point. The selling pressure from US investors shows no clear indication of abating.

Investor Johnny remarked, “The biggest indicator of a local bottom will be when the Coinbase premium returns.” A substantial decline similar to what occurred in February led to Bitcoin breaking below the $80,000 support level, although the price rebounded quickly afterward. Consequently, the current deeply negative reading may suggest a similar outcome.

In another concerning trend, December witnessed negative ETF flows for the second consecutive month. However, ETF outflows decreased significantly compared to the previous month.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow Source: SoSoValue

Patterns observed from February and early March of 2025 indicate a comparable phenomenon. This could signify ongoing selling by US investors, albeit at a reduced pace. Such a situation may enable Bitcoin to recover, even if the price briefly dips below the $80,000 mark.

Long-Term Holders Show Signs of Accumulation

Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) have begun to lessen their selling pressure, resulting in an uptick in their supply. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that LTH supply shifted from distribution to accumulation at the end of December, with approximately 10,700 BTC moving into long-term holding. This represents the first optimistic signal from long-term holders since they halted selling in July.

Analyst Darkfost noted, “For now, this remains a very modest change, but it is not insignificant…Historically, such shifts often precede consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries, depending on broader trends.”

Conclusion

In summary, the Coinbase Premium Index remains at historic lows, and ETF outflows continue to be a concern. However, positive indicators from long-term holders bring a glimmer of hope. Bitcoin could potentially dip below $80,000 if selling pressure continues, but a recovery could emerge at any moment.