Bitcoin Correction Timeline: Analyst Foresees Potential Bottom in October 2026

As Bitcoin (BTC) works to keep its value above the $90,000 level, market sentiment suggests the possibility of entering a new bear market. Analyst Ali Martinez has drawn on past market cycles to predict where Bitcoin might be heading next.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin struggles to stay above the $90,000 mark.
Analyst Ali Martinez uses historical trends to predict future market movements.
Historical cycles indicate a potential Bitcoin market bottom around October 2026.
Previous corrections suggest Bitcoin could retrace to about $37,500.

Bitcoin

Understanding Bitcoin Market Patterns

In a recent post on social media, Martinez shared a consistent trend indicating that Bitcoin typically takes about 1,064 days to rise from a market low to a market high, followed by roughly 364 days before it drops back down to another low.

The first notable cycle saw the market decay to a low in January 2015, reaching its peak in December 2017—exactly 1,064 days later. This peak was followed by a bear market lasting 364 days, resulting in a downturn in December 2018.

Similarly, the second cycle followed this pattern: after bottoming out in December 2018, Bitcoin hit its peak again in November 2021 over a period of 1,064 days. The next downturn led to a market low in November 2022, with Bitcoin trading around $15,500.

Where Will the Next Bottom Be—$37,500?

Currently, Martinez notes that we may be entering the third cycle, having experienced a market low in November 2022 and a peak above $126,000 in October.

According to these historical trends, Bitcoin appears to be in the 364-day correction phase, suggesting a potential bottom may occur around October 2026—approximately 288 days away.

Reviewing previous bear markets helps provide a clearer picture of possible declines. The bear market from 2017 to 2018 saw a correction near 84%, while the decline from 2021 to 2022 saw a fall of about 77%.

By averaging these two corrections, Martinez anticipates that Bitcoin could retrace around 80%, estimating the next market bottom to be around $37,500.

Bitcoin The 1-Day chart illustrates BTC’s price correction since the October highs. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $88,290, representing a 30% decrease from its recent peak.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com