Bitcoin Currently More Undervalued Against Gold Than in 2015

Summary: New market data reveals that Bitcoin’s valuation against gold is at a remarkably lower point now than during its lowest point in 2015. This article analyzes the current Bitcoin-to-gold relationship, historical comparisons, and signals suggesting an impending change in trend.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently more undervalued against gold than it was in January 2015.
The BTC/XAU ratio is significantly lower today, indicating Bitcoin's recent decline compared to gold's rise.
The Z-Score and RSI metrics suggest that Bitcoin is positioned for a potential trend reversal.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin previously experienced a massive rally following a similar undervaluation.

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Understanding Bitcoin's Current Valuation

Recent market data indicates that Bitcoin's valuation relative to gold is significantly lower than it was during Bitcoin's 2015 bottom. In January of that year, Bitcoin hit its lowest price of $152 amidst a bear market. At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio was 0.13, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 27.62, representing one of Bitcoin's bleakest valuations before a rapid price recovery.

Fast forward to today, Bitcoin is trading above $87,000, yet the BTC/XAU ratio stands at just 16. Notably, the weekly RSI against gold is at 25.80, which indicates that Bitcoin is even more undervalued against gold now compared to 2015. Furthermore, the current BTC/XAU Z-Score is lower than it was back in January 2015, reinforcing this observation.

Continued Decline of Bitcoin Against Gold

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized in his analysis that Bitcoin has been persistently sliding against gold. Since August 2025, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its value, plummeting from a peak of 37 ounces of gold. Although there was a brief recovery to 29 ounces in the last quarter of 2025, the trend downward resumed, leaving the current BTC/XAU ratio at 16 after sustained declines. During this same period, Bitcoin has diminished from $126,000 to $87,274, while gold prices have surged to new heights around $5,500.

Extreme Undervaluation of Bitcoin

Amid this trend, van de Poppe argues that Bitcoin is severely undervalued against gold. He examines the BTC/XAU Z-Score, which assesses whether Bitcoin is trading below or above its fair value relative to gold. The Z-Score recently approached -2, indicating an unprecedented level of undervaluation. Noteworthy is the fact that this level is even lower than the score recorded when Bitcoin hit its 2015 bottom, which was around $160, at that point boasting a BTC/XAU ratio of 0.13.

Bitcoin Z-Score Against Gold | Bitwise

Despite Bitcoin's higher price of $87,000 and the BTC/XAU ratio sitting at 16, the metrics suggest that it is currently undervalued against gold more than it was in 2015. Typically, such low Z-Score readings hint at a potential upward trend reversal.

Confirmation Through the BTC/XAU RSI

The BTC/XAU weekly RSI further supports the argument of Bitcoin's current undervaluation. Back in 2015, the RSI for Bitcoin against gold was at a low of 27.62, reflecting an extreme undervaluation.

BTCXAU Weekly RSI

Today, the RSI has dropped to an even lower 25.80. This indicates that Bitcoin's current position against gold is more undervalued than at its 2015 bottom, marking the lowest weekly RSI figure in the past 15 years.

Potential for a Market Reversal

Van de Poppe speculated that if he had the chance to buy Bitcoin at the 2015 bottom, he would have seized the opportunity due to BTC’s valuation at the time. Given Bitcoin’s current lower valuation compared to gold, he hints that it might be a wise investment opportunity in this cycle. Nevertheless, this reflects his personal opinion.

He pointed out that after the 2015 low, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic rally of up to 100 times its value. Historical data supports this trend: Bitcoin surged from $160 to a peak of $19,666 by December 2017, representing a 122 times increase in just two years. Whether a similar recovery is on the horizon now remains uncertain.

Disclaimer: This article serves only for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. The opinions expressed herein reflect the author's views and may not represent the overall view of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research prior to making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses.