Bitcoin Data Suggests $80K as the Bottom, Analysts Believe BTC Bulls Are Back

Bitcoin data calls $80K the bottom, analysts say BTC bulls are back

Summary: Recent analyses indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) might have established a solid price floor at around $80,000. Analysts predict a strong chance of price recovery and a potential resurgence of bullish market behavior.

Key Takeaways:

A Bitcoin analyst has estimated a 91% likelihood that BTC will avoid closing weekly below current low levels.
The NVT Golden Cross suggests that Bitcoin's market cap could be undervalued, hinting at short-term long position opportunities.
Insights from macroeconomic liquidity by Arthur Hayes and a quick recovery in on-chain data support the $80,000–$85,000 price range as a solid foundation.

Confirmation of a High-Probability Bottom for BTC

Bitcoin analyst Astronomer asserts that the current bearish outlook and calls to "wait for the trend" may be misaligned with the true market conditions. Using a capitulation volume model, which relies on a rule-of-three approach with weekly candles, it has identified key previous cycle bottoms marked by three consecutive high-volume red candles before significant market reversals.

Bitcoin weekly analysis by Astronomer. Source: X

Across 11 historical instances where this capitulation pattern emerged, the results have been notably consistent. In 2 cases, Bitcoin experienced approximately a 35% rally prior to continuing a broader downturn. In 8 scenarios, the emergence of this pattern pointed to the initiation of a new upward trend, leading to new all-time highs. Only 1 instance indicated sustained downside movement, making it an exception rather than the norm.

The analysis forecasts a 91% chance of Bitcoin hitting $118,000 from current prices, a 99% chance of reaching $112,000, and a 75% probability that the overall bull market will persist. Astronomer emphasizes that market sentiment can be misleading; selling now or hesitating for trend confirmation reflects cautious behavior that may lead to missed opportunities for profit.

On another note, the Bitcoin network value to transaction (NVT) golden cross has recently dipped to -1.6, often indicating market undervaluation and suggesting a potential short-term mean-reversion opportunity. Despite this, crypto trader Darkfost cautioned against using leverage in the current market environment.

Bitcoin’s NVT golden ratio chart. Source: Darkfost/X

Related: Strategy stock is bleeding, but Saylor ‘won’t back down’ from Bitcoin bet

Arthur Hayes: "I Believe $80,000 Will Hold" as Liquidity Expands

Arthur Hayes, as reported by Cointelegraph, has stated that Bitcoin's recent downturn to $80,500 represents a cycle floor, with an anticipated end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening cycle and an increase in U.S. bank lending.

As liquidity improves, Hayes foresees a "rising-tide effect" for the crypto market. He remarked, “We might hover below $90K and dip into the low $80Ks, but I believe $80K will hold,” positing that liquidity expansions, rather than market sentiment, will dictate the next phase of price movement.

On-chain data bolsters this viewpoint. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has recently recorded the largest net realized loss since the collapse of FTX. However, the market rebounded almost instantaneously, indicating that forced sellers were quickly absorbed. This swift recovery suggests that the circulating supply has been effectively reduced, enabling Bitcoin to defend the $80,000–$85,000 price range if traditional market conditions remain favorable.

Related: Bitcoin rallies as US dollar strengthens: Are crypto traders walking into a trap?