Bitcoin Decline Driven by Early Whale Selling, According to Ki Young Ju

Bitcoin's notable drop from $110,000 to roughly $80,000 is attributed to significant selling by early whales whose average purchase price is around $16,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju indicates that on-chain metrics show Bitcoin is currently in the “shoulder” phase of its market cycle, implying limited potential for short-term price increases.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has decreased from $110,000 to about $80,000 due to significant selling from early whale investors.
Two main groups of whales are influencing the market: legacy whales selling at profits and institutional investors accumulating Bitcoin.
Current data indicates Bitcoin is in a “shoulder” phase, signaling limited short-term upside.
A correction of up to 30% is plausible, but not a dramatic 70-80% crash.
The importance of a data-driven trading strategy is highlighted to navigate the current market landscape effectively.

This wave of selling overshadows institutional demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy, influencing Bitcoin's outlook for 2025. In an interview with Upbit's Upbitcare, Ju offers a data-driven perspective on the evolving situation for Bitcoin investors and the dynamics impacting the current market.

Selling Pressure from Early Bitcoin Whales

Ki Young Ju discusses the current market dynamics shaped by a confrontation between two primary groups of whale investors. Legacy whales, who hold Bitcoin with an average cost basis around $16,000, have started to unlock significant profits, selling hundreds of millions of USD worth of Bitcoin daily. This continual selling is placing substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

In contrast, institutional whales, including those participating in spot Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy, have built considerable positions. However, their buying strength has not kept pace with the scale of selling from earlier whales. Ju notes that wallets containing over 10,000 BTC for more than 155 days typically show an average acquisition cost of about $38,000. Meanwhile, traders on Binance initially bought Bitcoin at around $50,000, allowing many investors to take profit when needed.

Cost basis comparison across different Bitcoin holder categories. Source: CryptoQuant

Ju highlights that the influx from spot ETFs and MicroStrategy had previously provided momentum earlier in 2025. However, these inflows have since decreased, giving way to increased selling pressure. For instance, data from Farside Investors revealed that Bitcoin ETFs accounted for net inflows of $42.8 million on November 26, 2025, resulting in total cumulative inflows of $62.68 billion. Regardless of these figures, the ongoing selling from early whales continues to surpass institutional buying.

Market Cycle Analysis Indicates Limited Growth

On-chain profit-and-loss (PnL) metrics provide important insights into the current market cycles. Ju’s examination of the PnL index, utilizing a 365-day moving average, suggests that the market has entered a “shoulder” phase. This late-cycle position signifies restricted growth potential and a higher likelihood of price corrections.

The valuation multiplier indicates a neutral or flat outlook. In past cycles, every additional dollar contributed to substantial market-cap expansion. However, this multiplier effect has diminished, suggesting that market leverage is less effective now and that the current structure does not facilitate significant price surges.

PnL index showing Bitcoin’s current cycle position. Source: CryptoQuant

While Ju does not anticipate a drastic 70-80% decline, he believes corrections of up to 30% are likely. A fall from $100,000 could lead Bitcoin down to approximately $70,000. He supports this view by analyzing data from OKX futures long-short ratios, exchange leverage ratios, and buying-selling flow patterns.

Ju emphasizes the necessity of a data-centered approach. Recently, he urged traders to rely on metrics to foster conviction rather than speculation. His primary focus remains on interpreting on-chain data, exchange behaviors, and market dynamics.

“Never trade without data.” pic.twitter.com/JnAtLwpdGa — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju)

This thorough analysis offers a well-grounded evaluation based on on-chain evidence. As early Bitcoin whales continue to sell for profit, institutional players are confronted with a challenging environment. With high leverage ratios, neutral valuation multipliers, and a late-cycle perspective, the market's prospects for a significant rally in the near term appear limited.