Bitcoin Decouples From Global Liquidity: Analyst Attributes This to Quantum Threat

Bitcoin has notably detached from the global M2 supply for the first time. This article explores the potential reasons behind this shift, as explained by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has decoupled from the global M2 supply for the first time.
This change is highlighted by a significant difference in the year-over-year percentage changes between Bitcoin and the M2 supply.
Edwards attributes this divergence to a potential threat from quantum computing on Bitcoin's cryptography.
Concerns about quantum computers could influence market behavior and investor sentiment.
Bitcoin's current price is approximately $92,100.

Bitcoin

In a recent update shared on X, Charles Edwards detailed how Bitcoin has diverged from global liquidity trends, particularly the M2 money supply. This divergence marks a significant shift in the behavior of Bitcoin, which historically mirrored global liquidity patterns. The analyst links this new trend to the impending risk posed by quantum computing.

Bitcoin's Divergence From the Global M2 Supply Trend

In a recent tweet on X, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, discussed Bitcoin’s recent departure from established global liquidity flows. As reflected in the accompanying chart, Bitcoin’s year-over-year (YoY) percentage change has flattened out in 2025, while the total money supply in major economies has continued to grow.

Bitcoin Vs Global M2
This chart illustrates the diverging paths of Bitcoin and global M2 supply | Source: @caprioleio on X

Historically, Bitcoin's YoY percentage changes have closely followed the M2 supply trends. Charles noted, “This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows.”

Why This Shift Occurred

Edwards suggests that the emergence of quantum computing poses a credible threat to Bitcoin's security. The speculation is that quantum computers could potentially unravel the cryptographic protections that safeguard Bitcoin, particularly affecting older wallet addresses from the early days of the blockchain.

While it is uncertain how soon quantum technology will advance sufficiently to challenge Bitcoin, Edwards believes that Bitcoin has reached a critical point, which he calls a “Quantum Event Horizon,” in 2025. He stated, “The likelihood of a quantum machine being able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography is now shorter than the time it would take to implement an upgrade to Bitcoin.”

If an advanced quantum computer were to compromise older wallets, it would enable the owner to liquidate those funds onto the market, adversely affecting Bitcoin's price and potentially eroding public confidence in the cryptocurrency.

Edwards remarked, “Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly.” However, an X user pointed out that many investors may not share Edwards’ timeline regarding quantum threats, implying that the market may not decouple based on these concerns.

"Listening to all the Bitcoin maximalists on X, you would think that," Edwards responded. "But if you speak with seasoned capital allocators and Bitcoin veterans with over seven years of experience, they are all considering this risk."

Current Market Situation

In related news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shown declining interest recently, according to data from SoSoValue.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The chart illustrates recent changes in weekly spot ETF net flows | Source: SoSoValue

Last week, $681 million exited U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. The upcoming week has shown some initial inflows, but it remains to be seen if this trend will continue.

Bitcoin Price Update

As of the time of this article, Bitcoin is trading around $92,100, reflecting a nearly 2% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Chart
This price chart indicates Bitcoin's current market consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView