Bitcoin Dips Below $95K, Yet ETF Demand Soars to New Heights – Are Whales Buying Again?

Summary:
Bitcoin's price has fallen below $95,000 after nearing $98,000 recently, but signs of strong institutional interest are emerging as demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs reaches record levels. On-chain data indicates whales may be accumulating more Bitcoin during this price consolidation phase, despite the drop in price.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin's price dropped to below $95,000 after hitting highs near $98,000.
On-chain data shows strong signals of institutional demand for Bitcoin, particularly in spot ETFs.
Bitcoin's trading volume has increased, showing a significant imbalance toward buying.
Recent data suggests whales are likely re-entering the market, reinforcing consolidation rather than declining trends.
While some profitability concerns exist among ETF holders, overall sentiment remains positive.

Bitcoin Dips Below $95K, Yet ETF Demand Soars to New Heights – Are Whales Buying Again?

Bitcoin Price and Institutional Demand

Bitcoin has dipped below $95,000 this week after reaching close to $98,000. Yet, despite this price decline, indicators of institutional demand are at their strongest levels in months, with U.S. spot ETF inflows surpassing statistical extremes.

On-chain data showcases a decrease in sell-side pressure and hints at renewed accumulation, indicating that whales may be acquiring more Bitcoin during this consolidation.

According to Glassnode’s recent market analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, as the 14-day RSI cooled from 63.6 to 61.0 while staying above neutral levels.

Spot trading volume has seen a modest increase, rising from $8.8 billion to $9.3 billion. This comes with a significant change in the net buy-sell imbalance, which jumped from -$4.6 million to $81.2 million—an impressive 1,877% increase, highlighting a substantial reduction in sell-side pressure.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - Spot CVD and Spot Volume Chart

Surge in ETF Demand

The demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a striking turnaround last week, shifting from $1.3 billion in outflows to $1.7 billion in inflows, demonstrating activity well above traditional statistical measures.

This significant figure suggests renewed accumulation by institutions, as the weekly ETF trading volume increased from $16.8 billion to $21.8 billion—both numbers exceeding their historical ranges.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - ETF Netflow and ETF Trade Volume Charts

BlackRock’s IBIT was a major contributor to the inflow surge, securing $1.035 billion in the trading week from January 12–16, which constitutes nearly three-quarters of the total Bitcoin ETF demand.

The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, acknowledged the trend of institutional accumulation, stating, “Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong.” He noted that U.S. custody wallets—typically ranging from 100 to 1,000 BTC—added 577,000 BTC valued at $53 billion over the past year, with continuous flows into January despite the recent price consolidation.

The ETF MVRV ratio slightly increased to 1.71, positioned just above its upper statistical band, indicating that ETF holders are remaining in profitable positions.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - ETF MVRV Chart

Glassnode analysts pointed out that this high level of profitability could present a mild risk for profit-taking in the near term, though the overall sentiment remains optimistic as institutions continue to affirm their positions.

Mixed Signals from Derivative Markets

Futures markets displayed ambiguous signals, with open interest edging up from $31.0 billion to $31.5 billion. Glassnode analysts described this as a “cautious” rebuilding of speculative engagement.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - Futures Open Interest Chart

Funding rates dropped by 60.6%, from $1.5 million to $0.6 million daily, indicating a sharp decline in urgency from long positions and allowing for a more balanced market.

The perpetual cumulative volume delta demonstrated improvement, rising from -$437.7 million to -$6.2 million, breaking past its upper statistical band.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - Perpetual CVD Chart

Options markets have continued to reflect high levels of uncertainty, with open interest growing from $29.96 billion to $32.89 billion while the volatility spread increased from 42.8% to 44.6%, nearing the upper part of its historical range.

Stability in On-Chain Activity

Key blockchain metrics have shown signs of stabilization, with several indicators reflecting a cautious recovery.

Active addresses rose by 3.8% to 656,294, remaining below the lower statistical band but indicating improved engagement in the network without excessive speculation.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - Active Address Chart

The entity-adjusted transfer volume climbed by 3.9% to $8.6 billion, maintaining stable on-chain activity.

Bitcoin fee volume increased by 13.2% to $241,100, surpassing the lower statistical band.

Additionally, the short-term-to-long-term holder supply ratio grew from 16.7% to 17.0%, climbing above its upper statistical band amidst rising trading activity alongside possible higher volatility.

Bitcoin ETF Demand - STH/LTH Supply Ratio Chart

The change in realized cap improved from -0.3% to -0.1%, signifying more stable capital flows and less sell-side pressure.

The percentage of supply that is in profit increased from 70.6% to 75.1%. Meanwhile, net unrealized profit/loss improved from -8.1% to -3.8%, indicating a reduction in market stress and a recovery in investor sentiment.

In December, Ethereum ETFs notably demonstrated strength, with Fidelity’s FETH securing $59.25 million and Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust gaining $39.21 million, placing them among the top 10 U.S. ETPs for net inflows.

January saw even more significant inflows, with spot Ethereum ETFs attracting $479 million during the trading week from January 12 to 16, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with $219 million.