Bitcoin Enters Bear Market: Data Analysis Confirms Downward Trend

The current state of Bitcoin's price movement, hinting at a bear market, has become a significant concern in the cryptocurrency world. At present, Bitcoin's trading price fluctuates between $87,700 and $88,000, reflecting a 30% decline from its all-time high of October 2025. While price trends can be debated, on-chain data is increasingly clarifying the situation. Insights from CryptoQuant indicate a shift in Bitcoin's market structure, aligning with the early signs of a bear market.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price is currently between $87,700 and $88,000, down 30% from its October 2025 high.
The Combined Market Index (BCMI) signal indicates a movement toward bear market conditions.
The BCMI has dropped below its equilibrium level, which historically coincides with bearish phases.
Current market sentiment is weak, with low trader confidence reflected in the Fear zone reading of 28 on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Industry commentary suggests a prevailing atmosphere of fear and uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin investments.

As Bitcoin navigates these challenging times, understanding the underlying indicators and sentiment is critical for any investor in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin

BCMI Indicates Market Shift

One crucial signal pointing towards a bear market is Bitcoin's Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite indicator that merges price activity with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's BCMI fell to the 0.5 level in October, which was initially seen as a cooling phase rather than a cycle peak. At that time, the prevailing view suggested that Bitcoin was simply consolidating after an extensive rally.

However, this perspective has been challenged by worsening market conditions. Notably, Bitcoin's price has significantly decreased since late October, paralleled by a drop in the BCMI. This simultaneous decline indicates a reset in the market concerning both time and participant valuation.

Bitcoin
Chart Source: CryptoQuant
As illustrated in the chart, the BCMI has now dipped below its equilibrium zone—a development commonly associated with bearish trends where prices struggle to rally and downside risks heighten. Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles provides additional context; during both 2019 and 2023, substantial cycle bottoms emerged only when the BCMI compressed to the 0.25 to 0.35 range. These levels indicated significant sentiment compression, exhausted positioning, and a fundamental market reset.

Currently, Bitcoin's Combined Market Index stands below 0.4, showing it's below equilibrium yet still above a potential bottom zone. This situation suggests that the market might be entering a bear phase rather than merely experiencing a temporary setback. The analyst believes that a more stable bottom could materialize only if the BCMI revisits historical levels seen between 2019 and 2023.

Weak Market Sentiment Supports Bear Market Narrative

The prevailing market sentiment further reinforces the notion that Bitcoin could be slipping further into bearish territory. In recent weeks, optimism has been notably absent, with traders lacking confidence that prices have established a solid support level. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently registers a reading of 28, positioning market sentiment firmly within the Fear zone.

This bleak outlook is echoed in industry discussions. Changpeng Zhao recently remarked that many investors wish they had purchased Bitcoin earlier when it was at its previous all-time highs. Historically, those opportunities often arise during fearful and uncertain market conditions, similar to the current climate.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $87,510 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com