Bitcoin Enters Bear Market; Projections Point to a Drop to $35,000

Bitcoin's price is in a bearish phase, having recently dropped below a crucial support level of $107,000. Technical analysis indicates a potential correction that could see Bitcoin falling to around $35,000 in 2026, based on historical price behaviors and Fibonacci retracement levels. In this overview, we will examine the reasoning behind this outlook and what it means for Bitcoin's future.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has officially entered bearish territory after breaking below $107,000.
Technical analysis suggests a possible decline to $35,000 in 2026.
Historical data shows significant price corrections before major rallies, emphasizing the potential for a similar scenario.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels indicate critical price points at $44,000 and $35,000.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's Bearish Transition After Breaking Key Support

According to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, Bitcoin's higher-timeframe structure indicates that the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase following a significant break below a long-term support level at $107,000. The technical analysis conducted on the weekly candlestick price chart reveals that Bitcoin is entrenched in this bearish territory, with a predicted deeper correction projected towards $35,000 in 2026. This forecast hinges on Fibonacci retracement levels that may dictate Bitcoin's future price movements.

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Source: Chart from Crypto Patel on X

Breakdown Triggers Bearish Sentiment

This analysis suggests that Bitcoin's shift to bearish territory commenced when the price fell below a significant ascending trendline at approximately $107,000. This trendline, visible on Crypto Patel's shared weekly chart, served as dynamic support for much of the bullish rally from 2023 to 2025, connecting a series of higher lows leading to Bitcoin's peak price of $126,080.

The chart highlights a red circle marking the breakdown zone, which indicates where Bitcoin lost its upward momentum decisively. Following this breach, Bitcoin shifted to a downward trend and began forming lower highs. Patel indicates that crossing below this trendline marked the official entry into bearish territory, highlighting the need for a corrective phase before potential recovery.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels Forecast Declines to $44,000 and $35,000

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has been on a downward trajectory, with predictions that this trend will continue until it reaches around $35,000. This viewpoint is informed by the extent of Bitcoin’s corrections in past market cycles.

For example, the bear market of 2018 experienced an 84% decline from its peak, while the 2022 correction saw a decrease of about 77%. In both cases, these significant pullbacks occurred prior to the onset of the next major rally.

Given historical patterns, a decline below $50,000 from the current price is not unexpected and aligns with Bitcoin's established cycle behavior. The downward target estimates are based on Fibonacci retracement levels identified from the all-time high in October 2025.

The chart highlights two key levels: the first, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, currently around $44,000, is a mid-cycle pullback area that has historically attracted notable buying interest and could act as a support if selling pressure diminishes. If Bitcoin does not find support around $44,000, the next significant level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, projected around $35,000. There is an expectation that even if Bitcoin fails to maintain above $44,000, a bottoming out at $35,000 is likely. At the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, reflecting a 6% decline over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $63,657 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com