Bitcoin Enters Critical Decision Zone: Two Potential Price Paths Explained by Analyst

As Bitcoin kicks off 2026 on a bullish note, a well-known market analyst has outlined two potential price trajectories for the leading cryptocurrency. Over the past three days, Bitcoin has climbed 3.4%, currently trading at $90,500. This positions Bitcoin at a crucial decision point, where the next price movement is critical to its future.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,500, up 3.4% in the last three days.
Analyst Bitcoin Meraklisi outlines two possible price scenarios: a bullish rebound to $123,500 or a pullback to $86,000.
The cryptocurrency's relative strength index shows positive market signals, indicating potential price gains ahead.
While Bitcoin has seen growing adoption, it is also impacted by macroeconomic uncertainties.

Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin Rebound to $123,500 or Retrace to $86,000?

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) dated January 3, the analyst known as Bitcoin Meraklisi detailed a two-pronged price analysis for Bitcoin. Following its recent upswing, he points out that Bitcoin stands atop a three-month downtrend, marking a pivotal moment for the asset. In a more optimistic scenario, if Bitcoin can convincingly break above the $90,500 level, it could quickly reach $94,800. Hitting this target raises the possibility of soaring as high as $107,300, pushing Bitcoin into the six-figure range for the first time since mid-November.

Ethereum Source: @Bitcoinmeraklsi on X

With strong bullish sentiment, Meraklisi believes Bitcoin could even rebound further to $123,500, indicating a potential increase of 36.5% from current market prices. Conversely, if Bitcoin faces another rejection, the analyst cautions that an initial drop to $88,000 is likely. A further decline towards approximately $86,000 is also a possibility.

Interestingly, Meraklisi points out that predicting Bitcoin’s price is currently challenging, given the market's heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic and external influences. Over the last year, Bitcoin has seen increasing adoption, as evidenced by rising participation from institutions and governments. However, it has also faced price declines triggered by geopolitical tensions and renewed trade-war concerns.

Positive Signal from Bitcoin’s RSI

Amid the prevailing market uncertainty, Meraklisi highlights that Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) is signaling a positive trend, having broken out of an ascending triangle pattern that ended a three-month downtrend. If this RSI breakout proves to be a leading indicator, it suggests that Bitcoin might surpass its current resistance level and potentially embark on a bullish price path.

As of now, Bitcoin is valued at $90,603, reflecting gains of 0.76% and 3.13% over the past one and seven days, respectively. However, the monthly chart indicates a slight loss of 1.68%, suggesting that the market recovery is still in its early stages. With a total market capitalization of $1.8 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency and the eighth-largest asset globally.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $90,628 on the daily trading chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com